Not an April Fools’ Day Prank

Vaհe H Apelian

Yesterday, on April 1, 2026, the public meeting between the Armenian PM Nikol Vovayi Pashinyan and the Russian President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin will go down as another historical event in the torturous Armenian history. It is not likely that another Russian leader,  be he a tsar or a commissar, has had such a public encounter with an Armenian.

I watched the whole meeting although I understood nothing as the exchange was in Russia and there was no accompanying translation. But I have to say that I have never seen Putin meet any other country’s leader carrying notes in his hands.

The meeting commenced as it was scheduled. Both leaders entered the room from opposite sides precisely at the same time. There was not a waiting  period for the guest. The Russian President Vladimir Putin has a long-documented, decades-long habit of making world leaders, officials, wait for meetings.  A few years ago, he had president of Turkey Erdogan and his entourage wait for him enter the room.

This was not an April Fools’ Day encounter. Exactly ten years ago, next to the disastrous 44-Day Second Artsakh war, the most signigicant miliary clash between Azerbaijan and Armenia started on April 1, 2016 and lasted four days and came to be known as the 4-Day War. The Armenians failed to read properly the implications of that war. We should not misread the implications of the April 1, 2026 meeting between Armenia and Russia.

As I noted above, I did not understand the exchange between the two leaders as it was in Russian. Along with the preparedness of President Putin with notes in his hand, the Armenian PM entered the room without notes, but he carried a significant statement in the lapel pin he was wearing, that has come to symbolize his re-election policy. The now familiar lapel-pin Nikol Pashinan  was wearing is in the shape of the map of sovereign Armenia in peace with its neighbors, Nikol Pashinyan has been wearing it on and off his re-election campaign. 

 

I am not sure how much a parallel can be drawn between President of Russia Vladimir Putin’s public meeting the PM of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan in Kremlin, in Moscow on April 1, 2026; to  the U.S.  president Trump’s  public meeting with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, inside in the White House in Washington on February 28, 2025. I can only claim that both of these meetings were high stakes, contentious bilateral meetings and should be viewed and analyzed as such.

Anyone interested in the Putin and Pashinyan meeting may read the reports and the analysis that were posted in news outlets after the meeting was over.  One thing is obvious, Russia excerted public pressure at the highest level to bring Armenia in its fold by proposing that a Russian citizen may take part in the election in Armenia. I am not narrowing my statement to what is understood to be Russian Armenian oligarch Samvel Karapetyan. This time around the person may be an ethnic Armenian, but the next time around, the Armenia residing Russian Armenian dual citizen need not be an ethnic Armenian. 

The implication of the proposal is obvious, to bring Armenia in Russia's fold. But Russia has not invested all its capital in that proposal. As a matter of fact, Russia has a more effective arsenal at its dispostion, the Russian military in Armenia. 

I quote, “Russia maintains a significant military presence in Armenia, primarily the 102nd Military Base in Gyumri, which hosts thousands of personnel, MiG-29 fighters, and S-300 missiles. While often referred to as a base, it includes multiple regiment-sized units, with reports of personnel numbers ranging from 3,000 up to 5,000.” 

The Russian military can move on Yerevan and install a government in Armenia of its choosing, subordinate to Russia. I do not consider that possibility far fetched.

This brings back us to the possibility of history repeating itself.  The present Armenian experiment for sovereignty that has its roots in the 2018 Velvet Revolution, may be short lived, much like the First Republic's was short lived. We all know that captive nations cannot thrive. Armenia is at a crossroad, not only for peace with its neighbors, but also in its history.