Political monogamy is not recommended, but polygamy is

Vaհe H Apelian  

In Armenia, a political monogamy is not recommended for election, but political polygamy is.

Let me first define the terms. Monogamy is the marriage of two, when two unite to form a single entity.  Political monogamy is when two political parties form an alliance, a political marriage of sort. Polygamy is when a man is married to multiple wives. Polyandry is when a woman is married to multiple husbands. The latter is a very rare practice but it persists in isolated or indigenous communities as a social and economic adaptation. I chose the term polygamy and not polyandry because political leadership, especially in Armenia, is very much a man’s thing.  Consequently, a political polygamy is the political marriage of three or more parties as an alliance.

When it comes to politics in Armenia, a coalition of two, a political monogamy of sort, is not recommended. But an alliance of three  political parties, a political polygamy of sort, is very much recommended. Let my explain myself.

In politics, naturally a party’s voting constituent is the party’s capital to procure for itself seats for governing the country. In Armenia, thresholds for entering the government are as follows.

4% for single parties

8% for alliances of two parties

9% for three and 10% for alliances of more parties.

In Israel, the electoral threshold, that is to say the minimum share of votes required in order to have seats the Knesset, the Israeli parliament, is at least 3.25%. It used to be 1%  but was gradually raised to the current requirement of 3.25%. I do not think they have Armenia like election threshold provisions. In Turkey the threshold is 7%. It used to be 10% preventing smaller parties to have representation.

In Armenia, three parties forming an alliance and presenting themselves to the public as an alliance makes a lot of sense. An alliance of three parties would have needed a combined 12% of the votes to individually gain seats in the National Assembly and then form a fraction or a post-election coalition. But as an election alliance, it will only need 9% of the votes to have ideological presence in the National Assembly. An election alliance of four or more parties, look even more conducive for each, but it is not recommended as only three parties can form a post-election coalition to nominate the PM.

The problem with the parties that do not meet the threshold is that the votes cast for them will be absorbed by the winning parties/alliances. Thus, in fact they end up forfeiting their political capital or the political trust extended to them. During 2021 June snap general election, 26 political entities took part in the election. Only two passed the threshold. Nikol Pashinyan led the Civil Contact at 53.95%, and Robert Kocharian led Armenia Alliance that had 21.11% of the votes. Even Serzh Sargsyan/Artur Venetsyan led I Have Honor Alliance had only 5.22% but got seat because of the law that mandates at least 3 political entities (party/alliance), in the National Assembly. The combined votes of these three parties/Alliances, amount to 80% of the votes. The remaining 24 parties had a total of 20% of the votes which were absorbed by the winning three parties in the National Assembly.

However, an Alliance of two does not make sense at all. 

I have Kocharian’s Armenia Alliance in mind. During June 2021 general snap election, Kocharian’s Armenia Alliance was made up of three parties. They were ARF, Reborn Armenia and One Armenia. These three parties forming an alliance under the leaderships of Robert Kocharian made sense for the reasons given above. 

But during the upcoming June 7,2026 election, Armenia Alliance led by Robert Kocharian is made up of two parties, ARF and Forward Party. The Alliance has to secure 8% of the votes to get seats in the National Assembly. Which means that each of them has to contribute at least 4% of the votes to come up with the required 8% for the alliance.  Otherwise, it would mean that one of the two is benefiting from the political popularity of the other and will remain politically indebted.

Each of these two parties, ARF and Forward Party, was more likely to have gotten 4% of the votes and gotten seats in the National Assembly and formed a post-election parliamentary fraction; instead of each one of them tying their fortunes to 8% threshold to have seats. 

An alliance of two would make sense if a voter, who would not have wanted to vote to either one of them, decides to vote for them as a single entity. I do not think that is a realistic expectation from a voting public.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Armenia Election: the opposition make-up matters more than a landslide win

Vaհe H Apelian

List copied from Wikipedia

The Armenian Parliamentary Elections will be held on Sunday, 7 June 2026. Citizens who maintain a permanent residence in Armenia and are at least 18 years old can vote. There are 19 parties/coalitions vying for power. In order to qualify for seats in the National Assembly a single party is required to have 4% of the votes, a coalition or an alliance  of two parties is required to have 8% of the votes, while a coalition or an alliance of three parties will require to have 9% of the votes and 10% for alliances of more parties.

At least 101 seats of parliament, alongside four seats reserved for national minorities, one for each of the four largest national minorities, Yezidis, Russians, Assyrians, and Kurds, will make up the upcoming National Assembly using a proportional system for a period of five years. 

After the votes are counted, seats in parliament National Assembly, Armenia's parliament,  are distributed based on how much support each party received, as long as they pass the minimum vote threshold.

If one party or alliance of parties wins more than half of the seats, it can form a government on its own. If no one has a clear majority, parties have a few days to negotiate and try to form a coalition government together and propose a Prime Minister. If they cannot reach an agreement, a second round of voting is held only between the two parties or blocs that received the highest number of votes running. The winner of the second round is provided with additional mandates to secure the majority in the National Assembly.

Election projections are predicting the incumbent Civil Contract led by Nikol Pashinyan, winning by large margin. However,  all said and done, at least 3 parties will be in the National Assembly, with 2/3 of the seats held by the government and 1/3 by the opposition. You may read the attached link regarding the implication of a non-consequential “landslide” win; (Armenian election (landslide) mandate is burdensome.)

What is not being speculated is the make-up of the opposition, that will have a profound affect on the National Assembly.  Serzh Sargsyan’s Republican Paty is not participating in the election. Consequently, Serzh Sargsyan will not loom in the coming National Assembly.

Among the remaining parties and coalitions, speculated to be in the National Assembly, are:  Armenia Alliance led by Robert Kocharian, Strong Armenia led by Samvel Karapetyan, and Prosperous Armenia led Gagik Tsarukyan. Armenia Alliance led by Robert Kocharian, party is pro-Russian, and fully supports membership in the CSTO and the Eurasian Economic Union. It must have at least 8% of the votes to have seats.

Strong Armenia led by Samvel Karapetyan, is also a pro-Russian opposition party. In order to have seats, the party needs to have at least 4 % of the votes.

Prosperous Armenia led Gagik Tsarukyan. Ideologically, on the political spectruem, the party is a right leaning party and leans towards Russia as well. In order to have seats, the party needs to have at least 4 % of the votes.

All these three parties are led by oligarchs. They are not grass root political parties but are parties and alliances nurtured by the oligarchic party bosses. The Strong Armenia and Prosperous Armenia, being single party-political entities, each needs 4% of the votes to have seats. They appear to have more possibility to be in the National Assembly than the Armenia Alliance that needs 8% of the votes to be in the National Assembly. It remains to be seen if, in the unlikely event, all of them will win threshold and secure themselves seats.

There are however, at least a dozen of other political entities that are vying for power. Each has its own base and are led by fairly well known persons, who cannot be outright dismissed. Levon Shirinyan leads the  Christian Democratic Party, Vardan Ghukasyan leads  Democratic Law Discipline Party, Armen Tatoyan leads Wings of Armenia party, and  Edmon Marukyan leads Bright Armenia Party, and Aram Sargsyan Hanrapetutyun Party. Each is a single-party political entity and hence each needs 4% of the votes to have seat. These parties too further stack the odds against Robert Kocharian led Armenia Alliance.

With Serzh Sargyan led Republican party not taking part inn the election, the make-up of the upcoming opposition hinges on Robert Kocharian’s Armenia Alliance’s presence in the National Assembly, should it not secure enough votes to have seats in the upcoming National Assembly. The odds are stacked against it. Armenia Alliance   needs to have at least 8% of the votes, while his opposition contenders, being a simple-party,  will each need at least 4%. There is a good possibility that the opposition make-up in the upcoming National Assembly will be altogether different than what it was during the past five years. 

Link: Armenian election (landslide) mandate is burdensome: https://vhapelian.blogspot.com/2026/05/the-armenian-election-mandate-is.html

June 2, on home front, not June 7: Voting for John Armenian

  Vaհe H Apelian

Voting for John Armenian, who is running for election to the U.S. House to represent  California's 30th Congressional District.

John Armenian is running for election to the U.S. House to represent California's 30th Congressional District. He is on the ballot in the primary on June 2, 2026. He is running as a centrist and not as a party affiliate.

There are six other candidates on the ballot. Four of whom are running as Democrats, and two are running as Republicans The favored candidate appears to be the incumbent, Laura Friedman (D). John Armenian is the only candidate who is running as a centrist. The general election will take place on November 3, 2026. Two candidates who attained the highest votes during the June 2 primary, will be running in the general election. It is expected that it will be Laura Friedman and another.

John Armenian whom his classmates and close friends, know by his endearing name Ohan, studied physics at the American University of Beirut. After receiving his undergraduate degree in physics, he did graduate work at Tufts University in Boston. Not long after graduation, he moved to California where he was first employed in aerospace engineering. He later established his own very successful aerospace consulting firm. 

In his congressional election campaign brochure John wrote: “For 40 years, I solved complex problems for America's national defense—developing cutting-edge aerospace technologies, holding top-secret DoD clearances, founded my own R&D firm, and earned NASA recognition for contributions to the Hubble Space Telescope. I didn't build aerospace systems by picking political sides. I built them with data, logic, and rigorous problem-solving.”

John Armenian is a true centrist. In this heightened polarization of American politics, he represents an independent fresh air, who will strive to solve issues on their own merits. John Armenian is financing his campaign. In an interview he clarified that the is not running against the incumbent Laura Friedman or any other candidate for their party affiliation, he is running to bring his experience and knowhow to solve problems. NASA has recognized his special problem-solving capabilities.

When it comes to Armenia, he will continue to support that government the citizens of Armenia will elect on June 7, 2026.  

I urge all those who happen to read this blog, and live in his electoral district, to consider casting their votes in his favor. True to his spirited Independence to be his own person, in work as well – he founded his own aerospace consulting firm -  John Armenian has not sought the endorsement of any Armenian organization be it ANCA or Armenian National Assembly.

I urge all those who happen to read my blog and live in his electoral district, to vote for him. It is indeed rare to come across a true centrist person who will work for the people, not a party; and for common-sense solutions and not politics.

The "grazy" ones

 Vaհe H Apelian

During May 28 Armenian Republic or Armenian independence celebrations, Baruyr Sevag is often quoted.  It occurred to me that there is some parallel in that quote and the well known quote from Steve Jobs. Both have to do with daring, daredevils. I attached the passages from which the two quotes are taken in their entirety and had them translated by Google translations.

Baruyr Sevag’s quote is from Sardarabad Song. The lyrics of the song was by Baruyr Sevag - Խօսք՝ Պարոյր Սեւակ; the music was composed by Edgar Hovhannesyan - Երաժշտութիւն՝ Էդգար Յովհաննիսեան. The quote is the first two sentences of the lyrics of the Sardarabad song.

                                                ***

Steve Jobs delivered his famous "The Crazy Ones" manifesto in September 1997 as the launchpad for Apple's iconic "Think Different" ad campaign. The famous poem was written by the advertising agency to celebrate visionaries and position Apple as a brand for creative pioneers. It was read by Steve Jobs in the movie about him, ably personified by, Michael Fassbender, who is widely considered to have delivered the best performance as Steve Jobs in the 2015 biopic Steve Jobs.

As a note of further coincidence about the authors of these two quotes Baruyr Sevag and Steve Jobs, it dawned on me that Steve Jobs was raised by his adopted Armenian-American mother, Clara Hagopian Jobs (1924 – 1986). Baruyr Sevag was raised Anahid Kaspar Soghomonyan (1894-1982). I note that Sevag is a pen name the poet adopted in honor of Roupen Sevag, the Armenian writer, poet, medical doctor Roupen Sevag who was martyred during the Genocide.

 

 

Uncongenial reporting

Vaհe H Apelian

 

The reporting I am alluding to is the one I read yesterday in the Armenian Weekly. It is titled “Armenian prisoners in Baku: A political inconvenience for Yerevan?”. It cites a brief incident that happened with the FM Ararat Mirzoyan.  I quote, “The incident unfolded in Vardanants Square during a campaign appearance by Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan. As reporters pressed him on whether the issue of Armenian prisoners of war would be raised during high-level diplomatic meetings with Washington, the minister responded not with reassurance, urgency or even caution — but with irritation. “Ա՜ դե, ծընգլ արիք,” Mirzoyan snapped at journalists, using a slang expression that roughly translates to, “All right already, enough,” or, more bluntly, “You’re getting on my nerves.”

Of course, the reporter knows that the Armenian government has brought the issue of the Armenian prisoners at highest level. The PM  Nikol Pashinyan brought the issue of the Armenian prisoners to the attention of president Trump. 

If you doubt my assertion, that the Armenian government has raised the issue of the Armenian prisoners, ask the all-knowing AI. I did. This is the response I got. I quote. “Yes, the Armenian government consistently raises the issue of Armenian prisoners of war and detainees held in Azerbaijan with the U.S. For example, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan reaffirmed that securing the release of detainees in Baku remains an active and permanent topic in their dialogue with American counterparts. The issue has also been discussed at the highest levels, including engagement with the U.S. administration and during visits by U.S. officials to the region.”

But YES, the Armenian government has NOT made the prisoners issue contingent to its peace negotiations in pursuing its crossroad for peace strategic initiative.

Given that all that is public knowledge for all those concerned in the Armenian prisoners, I found the reporter pressing the issue to the FM Ararat Mirzoyan, inhospitable, hostile and absolutely uncaring.

Attached is my response to the article I forwarded to the Weekly, as my comment. I wanted to archive it, for all its worth.  At the moment my comment awaits the editor's moderation.

My comment to the said article: “I saw the incident Hoory Manoyan reported. Apparently Hoory Manoyan did not. It does not surprise me that FM Ararat Mirzoyan had the same reaction I did upon reading her reporting, in the manner she did. It irked me greatly. It must have irked the FM as well. It irked me, as it must have irked the FM, simply because the person who asked the question and Hoory Manoyan who reported the incident, do not have more at stake than the rest of us have about being held captive in this manner. Of course, I am not alluding to the agony of their family members who bear and will continue to bear no other can possibly feel, and alleviate. It is very obvious that the person who asked the FM, and Hoory Manoyan who reported to readers, are interested in needling to elicit a response of annoyance to make their day as reporters, in this day and age of reporting.

It is highly unlikely that Hoory Manoyan and that reporter had any suggestion for Armenia do, to have the prisoners released. As far as I am concerned, their release is contingent upon of Armenia finalizing the peace deal with Azerbaijan, for which Armenia has to remove the Declaration-Hrchakagir – from its Constitution or annul it.

That Hrchagakir is falsely reported as Declaration of Independence. Hrchagakir simply means an important declaration, a manifesto. Check any Armenian dictionary. There is nothing mentioned in it from whom or from what Armenia is declaring independence and why it is declaring independence.  There is no British Monarch or crown like mentioned there abusing its power, from whom or from which the Americans declared Independence. Or, there is no Spanish Colonialism like doing Mexicans wrong, from which Mexicans declared of Independence. The Armenian Declaration is a call to unite with Artsakh and remedy historical wrongs. Armenia cannot live up to what it declares, lest it resorts to another catastrophic losing war.”

I attached a copy of my comment awaiting moderation:

John Armenian a true centrist candidate

 Vaհe H Apelian

John Armenian is running for election to the U.S. House to represent California's 30th Congressional District. He is on the ballot in the primary on June 2, 2026. He is running as a centrist and not as a party affiliate.

There are six other candidates on the ballot. Four of whom are running as Democrats, and two are running as Republicans The favored candidate appears to be the incumbent, Laura Friedman (D). John Armenian is the only candidate who is running as a centrist. The general election will take place on November 3, 2026. Two candidates who attained the highest votes during the June 2 primary, will be running in the general election. It is expected that it will be Laura Friedman and another.

John Armenian whom his classmates and close friends, know by his endearing name Ohan, studied physics at the American University of Beirut. After receiving his undergraduate degree in physics, he did graduate work at Tufts University in Boston. Not long after graduation, he moved to California where he was first employed in aerospace engineering. He later established his own very successful aerospace consulting firm. 

In his congressional election campaign brochure John wrote: “For 40 years, I solved complex problems for America's national defense—developing cutting-edge aerospace technologies, holding top-secret DoD clearances, founded my own R&D firm, and earned NASA recognition for contributions to the Hubble Space Telescope. I didn't build aerospace systems by picking political sides. I built them with data, logic, and rigorous problem-solving.”

John Armenian is a true centrist. In this heightened polarization of American politics, he represents an independent fresh air, who will strive to solve issues on their own merits. John Armenian is financing his campaign. In an interview he clarified that the is not running against the incumbent Laura Friedman or any other candidate for their party affiliation, he is running to bring his experience and knowhow to solve problems. NASA has recognized his special problem-solving capabilities.

When it comes to Armenia, he will continue to support that government the citizens of Armenia will elect on June 7, 2026.  

I urge all those who happen to read this blog, and live in his electoral district, to consider casting their votes in his favor. True to his spirited Independence to be his own person, in work as well – he founded his own aerospace consulting firm -  John Armenian has not sought the endorsement of any Armenian organization be it ANCA or Armenian National Assembly.

I urge all those who happen to read my blog and live in his electoral district, to vote for him. It is indeed rare to come across a true centrist person who will work for the people, not a party; and for common-sense solutions and not politics.

 . 

 

 

 

 

May 28, 1918 born during the Great War (World War 1)

 Vaհe H Apelian

Tomorrow is May 28. It is a public holiday in Armenia, one of the 13 non-working holidays. It is called Republic Day and is celebrated to observe the founding of the first Republic of Amenia on May 28, 1918, after being stateless for the previous 543 years, since the fall of the Armenian Kingdom of Cilicia in 1375.

The Armenian Republic was born in war time. It was born as the Great War or World War I was raging. The war had started on July 28, 1914 and ended on the 11th hour on November 11, 1918.

It is called World War, because the conflict was between major global coalitions. The Allied Powers, consisted of France, Great Britain, and Russia, warring the Central Powers consisting of Germany and Austria-Hungary of the day, allied with the Ottoman Empire (Turkey). The Americans joined the Allied forces in 1917, to help them reverse the losing tide.

The Armenians participated in the World War I, siding  with the Allied Forces and fought both on the Western and Eastern or Caucasian fronts to help the Allied forces defeat Turkey and to have the Armenians establish a state of our own.

On the Eastern Front or Caucasian Front, the  Armenians fought under the Imperial Russian command, until the abdication of Tsar Nicholas in March 1917. Several months later, in October 1917, the Bolsheviks, led by Lenin, took over the Russian government. The immediate goal of the Bolsheviks was to exit from the devastating war. In December 1917, the Bolsheviks formally ended Russia's participation in the war by signing the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk in March 1918. 

The tsar's abdication and Bolshevik Russia’s exit from the Eastern Front of the Great War became catastrophic to the Armenians. It gave the Turks a free rein to commit the Armenian Genocide and to cleanse the surviving Armenians from the Armenian highlands, forcing the rag tag survivors of the Armenian genocide flee to Eastern Armenia.

But as Russia withdrew in 1917, Armenian battle hardened volunteer combatants, filled the void and halted further Ottoman advances in 1918 at the decisive Battles of Sardarabad, Bash Abaran, and Karakilisa, paving the way for the Armenians to establish the first Republic of Armenia on May 28, 1918. 

. A week after the founding the Republic of Armenia, the Ottoman Empire and the newly independent First Republic of Armenia, signed the Treaty of Batumi on June 4, 1918. Turkey recognized Armenia's independence but the treaty forced Armenia to cede large territories and submit to a significantly reduced military and restricted sovereignty.

The Great War continued on the Western Front. The Americans had joined the allies in 1917 and on May 28, 1918, U.S. forces fought its first major offensive in Cantigny,  France. This first major American offensive came to be known as the Battle of Cantigny. After the war was over, a memorial was elected there.

Armenian Americans served directly in the American Expeditionary Forces (AEF) in Europe. Among them notable were Brigadier General Haig Shekerjian, who later became the first general of Armenian descent in the U.S. military, and Major Varaztad Kazanjian, who pioneered reconstructive plastic surgery during the war, and became known as the Miracle Man of the Western Front. 

Armenians from the U.S. also served in The French Foreign Legion. The  French called the formation La Legion Armenienne. These volunteer Armnenian combatants came to be known as Gamavors, the Armenian name for volunteers. The Gamavors fought crucial battles in the Middle  East and helped secure Allied victories in the region, notably the Battle of Arara on September 18, 1918.

The Armenian volunteer combatants, especially on the Western Front of the Great War, were motivated by a French and Diaspora Armenian pact which promised that in return for Armenian military support to the Allied Forces,  against the Ottoman and German alliance, the French and their allies would help the Western Armenians lay the foundation for home rule in Cilicia. But that was not to be.

The First World War ended in  Paris Peace Conference (1919–1920) to establish the formal peace terms and redraw the global map following World War I. Diplomats from victorious Allied nations gathered in France to penalize the defeated Central Powers, establish new national borders, and create the League of Nations to prevent future conflicts. 

The Armenians were also invited to the conference. The conference came with the Treaty of Versailles, that severely punished Germany, and had a portion of Turkey under the mandate of the United State 

Treaty of Versailles, required Germany to accept responsibility for the war, relinquish territory, drastically reduce its military, and pay heavy financial reparations, that crippled the post war German economy and rendered the Germans destitute and gave rise to the Nazis, two decades later.

The victorious powers however were much more lenient to Turkey, although it was complicit with Germany. The Treaty of Sèvres promised Armenians an independent state encompassing vast historic territories on the historic Armenian highlands, recognized the Republic of Armenia and held Turkey accountable for the Armenian genocide. However, the treaty was never ratified.  On the contrary, it was superseded by the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne, which cemented modern Turkish borders and for all practical purposes legitimized the Great Armenian Dispossession because of the Genocide. 

From our tumultuous history, there remains of course the Republic of Armenia and us, as the descendents of the Armenian Genocide survivors turned into a global nation. Tomorrow, the citizens of Armenia will take a day off to attend the festivities marking the 108th anniversary of the founding of the first Republic of Armenia. The rest of us will join them in one way or another.