The mandate is in the number of votes

Vaհe H Apelian  

 

Voting in Armenia closed at 8 pm, on Sunday June 7, 2026. Early hour of the next day, at around 1.30 am June 8, 2026, Nikol Pashinyan held a conference and conveyed that that he was informed that the election results indicated that the Civil Contract party was winning the election. He claimed that not only that the Civil Contract party was winning the election but that it was winning it with more of a mandate than in the previous election. He attributed the mandate to the Velvet Revolution remaining steadfast in its mission.

Basing my projection on his announcement, I estimated published by projected outcome of the election and posted it on my Facebook page with the following numbers as my projection: Civil Contract getting 59.5% of the votes, given that in the 2021 election, the Civil Contract had 53.95% of the votes. I also had estimated that the Strong Armenia party may get 20.5% of the votes, Armenia Alliance and Prosperous Armenia party may each get 10% of the votes. Obviously, my projection was wrong and the Civil Contract party ended up getting 49.85% of the votes.

Consequently, the argument may be put forth that the Nikol Pashinyan led Civil Contract has lost or is losing its mandate. During the June 2021 snap general election, Civil Contract had 53.95% of the votes. In 2026 election, Nikol Pashinyan led Civil Contract party had 49.85% of the votes. Where is the mandate then, a person may ask?

The number of votes cast. The total number of registered voters, the number of votes cast, the number of votes cast  in favor of Nikol Pashinyan led Civil Contract, percent of the voters who voted, and the percent of voters who cast in favor of Civil Contract are listed in the table below. The figures are from Wikipedia.

The number of voters who cast in favor of Nikol Pashinyan led Civil Contract party in 2021, was 668,761. In 2026, the number of voters who cast in favor of Nikol Pashinyan led Civil Contract was 727,820, which means compared to 2021 snap election, the Civic Contract has gained 59,059 votes.

Revolutions are transient. They tend to lose their momentum soon after. All revolutions I have come to know in history eventually fizzled out or morphed into something far different. All revolutions I know of suppressed the existing law and order and instituted their own. The Velvet Revolution is the only revolution I know of that held the existing law and order and attempts to bring about change in the existing law and order the Velvet Revolution took over. 

Although the Velvet Revolution has lost a sizeable number of voters since December 2018 snap general election, the argument may be made that Nikol Pashinyan led Civil Contract has kept its momentum, against all odds. 

 

 

Մինաս Թէօլէօլեան

 

https://horizonweekly.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Teoleolian-amenaverchinelink-1.pdf?brid=IncRPuMlbGFyPWmx_2a9IA 

An unsettling criticism for a price Armenia can bear

 Vaհe H Apelian

Robert O. Krikorian PhD has recently posted an article in the online journal Keghar.com, titling it “Armenia needs to Challenge its Assumptions”. (June 3, 2026).

 Frankly speaking I was disappointed in the way Dr. Robert O. Krikorian treated in that article,  Armenia’s crossroad for peace existential initiative, especially after reading his academic credentials, academic experiences, and his “career as a diplomatic historian, focusing on the practical and policy-relevant applications of historical knowledge.” Armenia’s strategic initiative is not about what Turkey and Azerbaijan want; it is about what Armenia wants and strategizes to achieve.

Furthermore, considering Armenia’s history with its neighbors and the recent tragic experience losing historic Artsakh, I find Armenia, contrary to Dr. Robert O. Krikorian’s assumption, is is challenging historic assumptions in an unprecedented way. I find the diplomatic headways Armenia has made, in spite that “Armenia has provided no evidence or reasoned analysis that Ankara and Baku want anything other than a weak and compliant Armenia to serve their own strategic interests”, remarkable. For the very first time in recent history, Armenia’s borders including of course along Turkey and Azerbaijan, are now manned by Armenians only. And also “For the First Time Since Independence, Armenia Records 24 Months Without Border Fatalities; Thousands of Homes Being Built in Border Communities” (a Massispost.com quote). 

I invite Dr. Robert O. Krikorian ask and gauge the reactions of parents and relatives of citizens of Armenia who have a son or a daughter, a niece or nephew serving, or will be serving, Armenia’s armed forces and manning Armenia's borders.

I also found offensive that person of his caliper calls the Armenian Government a “regime.” Dr. Robert O. Krikorian knows that the current government came about by the consent of the citizens of Armenia, who elected Nikol Pashinyan led Civil Contract party in an orderly, transparent democratic election to govern Armenia.

There are a number of other issues Dr. Robert O. Krikorian raises, such as the Armenian prisoners in Baku, the destruction of Armenian monuments left behind in historic Artsakh, occupied lands in Armenia, aggressive statements coming from Baku. Yes, there will not come a time when Armenia will not confront serious issues or remain nonchalant in that tinderbox of a region. However, the following is unquestionable. Armenia was 29,743 square kilometers before Nikol Pashinyan came to power. Armenia is 29,743 square kilometers as Nikol Pashinyan strives again to be elected as the PM.

What also was disappointing to me, was his lack of suggestion as to how he proposes Armenia best strategizes its relations with its forever four bordering countries, given his unmistakable criticism of Nikol Pashinyan government. His concluding paragraph is evasive at best. “It is not too late, however, to reverse this troubling trend”, is not a statement that lays down a strategy. Reverse "the troubling trade", in favor of what? I invite readers to read it over again and rebut or rebuke me if I err in my assertions. 

Armenia is doing a remarkable job joggling conflicting interests. However, internal matters are exacerbating Armenia’s foreign policy and that is because of the lingering commissar hegemonic mentality and the safeguarding the ill-gotten wealth, and other de-stabilizing legacies of Soviet Socialist Union and its breakup. What exacerbates Armenian policy is the oligarchic remnants from the unprecedented plunder that turned the well-connected members of yesterday’s Soviet nomenklatura, onto fiscal barons be he Robert, Sezh, or Samvel.

Much like any strategy, crossroad for peace initiative exacts its price. But what strategic initiative does not exact a price? All do. But cross road for peace strategic initiative exacts a price Armenia can bear.  

 

 

A disappointing article

Vaհe H Apelian

Robert O. Krikorian PhD has recently posted an article in the online journal Keghar.com, titling it “Armenia needs to Challenge its Assumptions”. (June 3, 2026).

 Frankly speaking I disappointed in the way Dr. Robert O. Krikorian treated Armenia’s crossroad for peace existential initiative, especially after reading his academic credentials,  academic experiences, and his “career as a diplomatic historian, focusing on the practical and policy-relevant applications of historical knowledge.” Armenia’s strategic initiative is not about what Turkey and Azerbaijan want; it is about what Armenia wants and strategizes to achieve.

Furthermore, considering Armenia’s history with its neighbors and the recent tragic loss of Artsakh experience, I find Armenia, contrary to Dr. Robert O. Krikorian’s assumption, is challenging Armenian historic assumptions in an unprecedented way. I find the diplomatic headways Armenia has made, in spite that “Armenia has provided no evidence or reasoned analysis that Ankara and Baku want anything other than a weak and compliant Armenia to serve their own strategic interests” and by  ruling out war, remarkable. For the very first time in recent history, Armenia’s borders including of course along Turkey and Azerbaijan, are now manned by Armenians only. And also “For the First Time Since Independence, Armenia Records 24 Months Without Border Fatalities; Thousands of Homes Being Built in Border Communities” (a Massispost.com quote). 

I invite Dr. Robert O. Krikorian ask and gauge the reactions of parents and relatives of citizens of Armenia who have a son or a daughter, a niece or nephew serving, or will be serving, Armenia’s armed forces and manning Armenia's borders.

I also found offensive that person of his caliper calls the Armenian Government a “regime.” Dr. Robert O. Krikorian knows that the current government came about by the consent of the citizens of Armenia, who elected Nikol Pashinyan led Civil Contract party in orderly democratic election to govern Armenia.

What also was disappointing, was his lack of suggestion as to how he proposes Armenia best strategizes its relations with its forever four bordering countries, given his unmistakable implied criticism. His concluding paragraph is evasive at best. I invite readers to read it over again and rebut me if I err in my assertions. Vahe H Apelian PhD

Armenia: Happy voting on Sunday June 7, 2026

  Vaհe H Apelian

I was born and raised in Lebanon as a Lebanese national. I am now an American citizen. I have not renounced by Lebanese citizenship. I have not exercised by Armenia right of return and have not applied for Armenian citizenship. I do not intend to repatriate. Naturally I cannot vote in Armenian election. In the upcoming election, my favorite political party in Armenia i is the Civil Contract party. But I stand by and support any government the citizens of Armenia bring about by an orderly democratic election.

Throughout the past month, the relentless attacks on the PM Nikol Pashinyan, reminded me of Kristapor Mikayelian's, "Crowd Mentality – Ամբոխային Տրամաբանութիւն treatise. Kristapor Mikayelian’s famous treatise – Crowd Mentality - is quoted to this day. In it, Kristapor Mikayelian refuted the crowd mentality that follows the Latin phase "post hoc, ergo propter hoc" - after this because of this. He was refuting the mentality that attributed the mid 1890’s Hamidian massacres to the revolutionary organizations founded not even a decade earlier. Surprisingly, elements who uphold Kristapor Mikayelian’s treatise, nowadays do the same, attributing the depopulation of Artsakh solely to Nikol Pashinyan because it happened under his watch. 

Naturally not all in Armenia are carried by that false Nikol Pashinyan is the sole culprit for the loss of Artsakh, crowd mentality; especially the mostly young and upcoming generation in Armenia, some of whom were not even born on September 21, 1991. They remain rallying for Nikol Pashinyan. They played a decisive role in having NP elected in June 2021.  They are rallying for him for June 2026 election as well. Whether they will be able to carry the election or not, we will know in a day or two. But they have changed the narrative of the election.

Over the years I have gotten to know more about some of them, than others from the competing parties and alliances. I first heard the name Nikol Pashinyan on November 27, 2010 when the online journal Keghart.com ran “Free journalist Nikol Pashinyan” appeal. Subsequently I got to know about some of the other prominent members of the Velvet Revolution and presently Civil Contract party member. I wrote in my blog about them. I listed the links to these blogs, below.

Maybe on Monday, June 8, 2026 we will find out who carried the election. But I believe the mostly younger Armenians who brought about the Velvet Revolution have already changed the election narrative and further democratized election in Armenia. The election is now more about issues than about persons, although prominent persons are playing pivotal roles in the election.

Happy voting on Sunday June 7, 2026.

***

 

Link: The evolution of Hayk Konjoryan. https://vhapelian.blogspot.com/2025/06/the-evolution-of-hayk-konjoryan.html

 

Link: Vahagn Aleksanyan, a true role model. https://vhapelian.blogspot.com/2025/07/vahagn-aleksanyan-true-role-model.html

 

Link: Not all Armenian Americans treated Armenia’s Ambassador Lillit Makunts properly. https://vhapelian.blogspot.com/2025/08/not-all-armenian-americans-treated.html

 

 

 

 

 

Armenia: A trend in exercising democracy

  Vaհe H Apelian

The citizens of Armenia are exercising democracy to the x ^th degree, it such a thing could be said. For a small country with a population of around 3 million, Armenia boasts abundant political entities. I say political entity because some are coalitions or alliance of different parties. An overabundance of political parties has a   major drawback.  The votes cast in favor of the parties or alliances that did not meet the threshold requirement, are absorbed by the parties or alliances that met the threshold. Consequently, it is recommended that fewer parties or alliances take part in the election. 

Nineteen – 19 – parties/alliance are vying for power during this upcoming election.  During June 2021 election, there were twenty-six – 26 - parties vying for power. That is to say, there are seven less parties in this upcoming election, from June 2021 election. Hopefully this will trend continue at the same rate.

If this trend continues, there will be 12 parties vying for power during June 2031 election. I think, 12 parties vying for power in Armenia is ample.

 

 

In Armenia an election alliance of two is not recommended

Vaհe H Apelian 

 

Courtesy OC-Media.org. 
https://oc-media.org/whos-who-in-armenias-2026-parliamentary-elections/

 

 

In the upcoming election in Armenia, Robert Kocharian led Armenia Alliance of two is the only alliance made up of two parties, ARF and Forward Party. This monogamous political relationship may well backfire on both and one or both of them may end up regretting forming an alliance when both could have run independently. Because when it comes to politics in Armenia, a coalition of two, a political monogamy of sort, is not recommended. But an alliance of three or more, a political party, a political polygamy of sort, is very much recommended.

Let me explain myself and elaborate why a political alliance of two is not recommended in Armenia.

In politics, naturally a party’s voting constituent is the party’s capital to procure for itself seats for governing the country. In Armenia, thresholds for entering the government are as follows.

4% for single parties

8% for alliances of two parties

9% for three and 10% for alliances of more parties.

In Israel, the electoral threshold, that is to say the minimum share of votes required in order to have seats the Knesset, the Israeli parliament, is at least 3.25%. It used to be 1%  but was gradually raised to the current requirement of 3.25%. I do not think they have Armenia like election threshold provisions. In Turkey the threshold is 7%. It used to be 10% preventing smaller parties to have representation.

In Armenia, three or more parties forming an alliance and presenting themselves to the public as an alliance makes a lot of sense. An alliance of three parties would have needed a combined 12% of the votes to individually gain seats in the National Assembly and then form a fraction or a post-election coalition. But as an election alliance, it will only need 9% of the votes to have ideological presence in the National Assembly. An election alliance of four or more parties, looks even more conducive for each, but it is not recommended. It is unlikely that four could agree on a PM. In the National Assembly, only three parties can form a post-election coalition to nominate the PM. Coalition Limits: To ensure a stable government, coalitions can consist of a maximum of three political forces. (Armenian Weekly, 2.28.2017)

The problem with the parties that do not meet the threshold is that the votes cast for them will be absorbed by the winning parties/alliances. Thus, in fact they end up forfeiting their political capital. During 2021 June snap general election, 26 political entities took part in the election. Only two passed the threshold. Nikol Pashinyan led the Civil Contact at 53.95%, and Robert Kocharian led Armenia Alliance that had 21.11% of the votes. Even Serzh Sargsyan/Artur Venetsyan led I Have Honor Alliance had only 5.22% but got seat because of the law that mandates at least 3 political entities (party/alliance), in the National Assembly. The combined votes of these three parties/Alliances, amount to 80% of the votes. The remaining 24 parties had a total of 20% of the votes which were absorbed by the winning three parties in the National Assembly.

However, an Alliance of two does not make sense at all. 

I have Kocharian’s Armenia Alliance in mind. During June 2021 general snap election, Kocharian’s Armenia Alliance was made up of three parties. They were ARF, Reborn Armenia and One Armenia. These three parties forming an alliance under the leaderships of Robert Kocharian made sense for the reasons given above. 

But during the upcoming June 7, 2026 election, Armenia Alliance led by Robert Kocharian is made up of two parties, ARF and Forward Party. The Alliance has to secure 8% of the votes to get seats in the National Assembly. Which means that each of them has to contribute at least 4% of the votes to come up with the required 8% for the alliance.  Otherwise, it would mean that one of the two is benefiting from the political popularity of the other and will remain politically indebted.

Each of these two parties, ARF and Forward Party, was more likely to have gotten 4% of the votes and gotten seats in the National Assembly and formed a post-election parliamentary fraction; instead of each one of them tying their fortunes to 8% threshold to have seats. 

An alliance of two would make sense if a voter, who would not have wanted to vote to either one of them, decides to vote for them as a single entity. I do not think that is a realistic expectation. It is more likely that the contrary may happen. A voter would have voted for one of the two and not the other, may end up voting to neither, having not voted for the alliance.