Vaհe H Apelian
An Armenian election landslide is burdensome to the taxpayers, because it will call for more National Assembly seats. It may be the unintended consequence of the Armenian election laws that aim to ensure a stable governing majority and an effective opposition, while taking intro account the parliamentary election results.
The "Stable Majority" rules that a government can function effectively, if the winning political entity commands 2/3 majority of the National Assembly. That is to say, If one party or alliance wins more than two-thirds of the initial seats, the election laws mandates that the party share its seats down to two-thirds. And if its election is less than 2/3, then the winning party acquires seats to have 2/3 of the National Assembly seats.
The "Effective Opposition" rues conversely. In order to achieve an effective opposition, the opposition commands 1/3 of the National Assembly seats. If it does not, seats will be allocated to the opposition to bring it to 1/3 of the seats of the National Assembly.
Let us consider the outcomes of the December 2018 and the June 2021 snap general elections.
During the December 2018 snap general election, driven by the euphoria of the Velvet Revolution, Nikol Pashinyan’s My Step Alliance won the snap general election by landslide, while the two opposition parties had a total of 15% of the votes. The resultant was a 132 seat National Assembly with 88 seats, or 2/3 or 69% of the seats for Nikol Pashinyan’s alliance; and 44 seats, or 1/3 or 33% of the seats to the opposition that had only 15% of the general election votes.
During the June 2021, election, Nikol Pashinyan led Civil Contract party, won 54% of the votes but ended up with 71 seats of 101 seat National Assembly, or 2/3 or 69% of the seats, when it had only 54% of the general election votes. The Opposition had 26.33% of the votes, but ended up with 36 seats, or 1/3 or 33% of the National Assembly seats.
In both these elections, the government ended up with 2/3 of the seats and the opposition 1/3 of the seats, as stipulated by law. There is a mathematical logic behind these numbers that take into account the percentage of the votes in the general election to achieve an “effective opposition” and a “stable government”, which will translate into 2/3 of the seats for the government and 1/3 to the seats to the opposition but in different numbers of the National Assembly seats. (see the attached link).
Nineteen political forces are competing in Armenia’s June 7, 2026 parliamentary elections. To enter parliament, a political entity must clear the following thresholds: Single party threshold is 4 percent. The threshold for an alliance of two or three parties is 8 percent, while for an alliance of four or more parties the threshold is 10 percent. Once voting ends and ballots will counted, and the Armenia’s Electoral Code rules will determine how the votes are converted into seats in the National Assembly, and how many will be the National Assembly seats, but the government to the opposition ratio of 2/3 vs 1/3, will remain.
Whatever the outcome of the June 7, 2026 election, there will be at least 3 political entities, as party or alliance, that will have 1/3 of the National Assembly seats, and the governing entity that will have 2/3 of the seats. But the number of the seats of the National Assembly may change.
The mandate that Nikol Pashinyan speaks about boils to these numbers, 2/3 for the governing entity, and 1/3 for the opposition but, as noted the number of the seats of the National Assembly may be more than the basic 101 seats, plus seats allocated for minorities. In case of June 2021 election, the number of the National Assembly seats was 107. In the December of 2018 election the number of the National Assembly seats was 132, taxing the citizens to support more National Assembly seats, while the keeping the opposition of the government seats at the same ratio, 2/3 to 1/3.
What is the advantage of having an election landslide mandate, that is to say a vote that overwhelmingly favors one party over the rest? The only advantage I see is reducing the effect of cross over. In a more National Assembly seats, more delegates will need to cross a party line to make a difference. In a smaller National Assembly seats, the cross over by a few may make a much more noticeable difference. In this polarized atmosphere, delegates crossing over is unfathomable. Otherwise, I do not see any advantage for securing an election landslide.
Forget an election landslide.
Just win the election.
That is all that matters.
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Link: Why the Armenian National Assembly number varies? https://vhapelian.blogspot.com/2018/12/why-armenian-national-assembly-numbers.html












