Vaհe H Apelian
It was apparent that Putin has lost his grip on the prevailing reality in the South Caucasus. During April 1, 2026 summit with Nikol Pashinya, Putin spoke of favored Russian and Armenian political relationship to the extent of suggesting that people with Armenian and Russian dual citizenship take part in the Armenian election. This is what Putin said: “And finally, in Armenia we have many friends, many, we know that. Many Armenians live in the Russian Federation. We can calculate differently, we consider it to be more than 2 million people. And the statistical data of our Ministry of Internal Affairs itself testify to this. And there are many political forces that have a pro-Russian position. Of course, I will tell you openly that we have such a dialogue that we always speak honestly and directly. We would very much like all these political parties, politicians to be able to participate in this domestic political work during the elections. Some, I know, are in places of detention, despite the fact that they have Russian passports. That is your decision, we do not interfere, but we would like them to at least be able to participate in this domestic political process.” (read the whole transcript below).
In stating that, Putin did not take into consideration the Armenian constitution and what would Armenia’s next-door neighbors, particularly, Turkey and Azerbaijan regard such a political relationship. Simply said, Putin seems to have lost his grip of the political reality in the South Caucasus where Russia is no longer, the power broker it was once, having if not misused and abused its historic dominant role, it miscalculated the longevity of its political grip in South Caucasus by not upholding its natural ally Armenia at its recent most, crucial period of history.
Russia does not share a common border with Armenia, while Turkey and Azerbaijan have a choke hold border. The distance between Yerevan and Christian Moscow is 2237 Km. The distance between Yerevan and Muslim Baku is 695 km. The distance between Yerevan and Muslim Ankara is 1381 km, and between Yerevan and Mulim Tehran is 1150 km. Armenia’s political priority is to deal with its immediate Muslim neighbors than with its further away co-religionist Christian Russia, which, as said earlier, lost its influence in the South Caucasus heartland because of its historic and recent political failures, blinded by its outdated historical imperial mindset,
My late uncle Antranig Chalabian was an advocate of a close Russian Armenian relations. But in 1988, he wondered and wrote, “Will the present-day Soviet rulers of glasnost and perestroika (openness and restructuring) be able to see the important role a greater and stronger Armenia can play in the political network of religious minded peoples on the southern borders of their empire? It remains to be seen.” (see the link)
Had Antranig Chalabian been alive he would have found out that the post-Soviet Union Russia was not open or glasnot enough and did not restructure or perestroika its imperial mindset enough to see the important political role a stronger Armenia could have played at its southernmost border. Instead, Russia outright miscalculated that they can maintain their prominent historic role in the Caucasus without strong Armenia. Putin undermined Armenia. Armenia has to prioritize its relations with its immediate Muslim neighbors. As a matter of fact, Armenia cannot have fruitful relations with Russia until it first cements peaceful relations with its immediate neighbors as stipulated in its Crossroad of Peace initiative.
Whether the upcoming election in Armenia will cement the Civil Contract driven and Nikol Pashinyan led Crossroad of Peace initiative with Armenia’s Muslim neighbors, will be seen. Evan if the Civil Contract party loses the election, whoever assumes power will soon fall in line and will uphold the process, but with a loss for Armenia instead of a gain, the continuation of the policy would have with the Civil Contract party, that initiated and pushed the the Crossroad of Peace with popular support.
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Link: Antranig Chalabian EMPERORS, TSARS and COMMISSARS https://vhapelian.blogspot.com/2023/08/antranig-chalabian-emperors-tsars-and.html
Link: Vladimir Putin and Nikol Pashinyan meeting on April 1, 2026 in Moscow.
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