Armenia Election: the opposition make-up matters more than a landslide win

Vaհe H Apelian

List copied from Wikipedia

The Armenian Parliamentary Elections will be held on Sunday, 7 June 2026. Citizens who maintain a permanent residence in Armenia and are at least 18 years old can vote. There are 19 parties/coalitions vying for power. In order to qualify for seats in the National Assembly a single party is required to have 4% of the votes, a coalition of two parties is required to have 8% of the votes, while a coalition or an alliance of three parties will require to have 9% of the votes and 10% for alliances of more parties.

At least 101 seats of parliament, alongside four seats reserved for national minorities, one for each of the four largest national minorities, Yezidis, Russians, Assyrians, and Kurds, will make up the upcoming National Assembly using a proportional system for a period of five years. 

After the votes are counted, seats in parliament are distributed based on how much support each party received, as long as they pass the minimum vote threshold.

If one party or alliance of parties wins more than half of the seats, it can form a government on its own. If no one has a clear majority, parties have a few days to negotiate and try to form a coalition government together and propose a Prime Minister. If they cannot reach an agreement, a second round of voting is held only between the two parties or blocs that received the highest number of votes running. The winner of the second round is provided with additional mandates to secure the majority in the National Assembly.

Election projections are predicting the incumbent Civil Contract led by Nikol Pashinyan, winning by large margin. However,  all said and done, at least 3 parties will be in the National Assembly, with 2/3 of the seats held by the government and 1/3 by the opposition. You may read the attached link regarding the implication of a non-consequential “landslide” win; (Armenian election (landslide) mandate is burdensome.)

What is not being speculated is the make-up of the opposition, that will have a profound affect on the National Assembly.  Serzh Sargsyan’s Republican Paty is not participating in the election. Consequently, Serzh Sargsyan will not loom in the coming National Assembly.

Among the remaining parties and coalitions, speculated to be in the National Assembly, are:  Armenia Alliance led by Robert Kocharian, Strong Armenia led by Samvel Karapetyan, and Prosperous Armenia led Gagik Tsarukyan. Armenia Alliance led by Robert Kocharian, party is pro-Russian, and fully supports membership in the CSTO and the Eurasian Economic Union. It must have at least 8% of the votes to have seats.

Strong Armenia led by Samvel Karapetyan, is also a pro-Russian opposition party. In order to have seats, the party needs to have at least 4 % of the votes.

Prosperous Armenia led Gagik Tsarukyan. Ideologically, on the political spectruem, the party is a right leaning party on the pot and leans towards Russia as well.

All these three parties are led by oligarchs. They are not grass root political parties but are parties and alliances nurtured by the oligarchic party bosses. The Strong Armenia and Prosperous Armenia, being single party-political entities, need 4% of the votes to have seats. They appear to have more possibility to be in the National Assembly than the Armenia Alliance that needs 8% of the votes to be in the National Assembly. It remains to be seen if, in the unlikely event, all of them will win threshold and secure themselves seats.

There are however, at least a dozen of other political entities that are vying for power. Each has its own base and are led by fairly well known persons, who cannot be outright dismissed. Levon Shirinyan leads the  Christian Democratic Party, Vardan Ghukasyan leads  Democratic Law Discipline Party, Armen Tatoyan leads Wings of Armenia party, and  Edmon Marukyan leads Bright Armenia Party, .

The make-up of the opposition hinges on Robert Kocharian’s Armenia Alliance’s presence in the National Assembly. Should it not secure enough votes to have seats in the upcoming National Assembly.The odds are stocked against it. Armenia Alliance   needs to have at least 8% of the votes, while his opposition contenders, being a simple-party, will need at least 4%; the opposition make-up will be altogether different than what it was during the past five years. 

Link: Armenian election (landslide) mandate is burdensome: https://vhapelian.blogspot.com/2026/05/the-armenian-election-mandate-is.html