A difficult northern uncle indeed

Vahe H Apelian

Armenians have referred to Russia as its northern powerful Christian uncle because they have regarded Russia as their closest neighbor who would stand by them in case of need. This sentimental uncle has not lived up to that image politically. Russia has been and continues to be for the Armenians a difficult political uncle indeed, whom the Armenians do not imagine to dismiss from the family fold. Russia is and will remain Armenia’s Northeastern neighbor with whom they will have to deal.

Lately I am reminded of Antranig Chalabian’s take on Armenia and Russia relationship he penned in his booklet he titled “Emperors, Tsars and Commissars”.  The booklet is written in 1988 when the Soviet Union was teetering between abandoning the Soviet ship or restructuring it as its leader Gorbachev aspired. 

 I quote the following passage from his booklet: “As long as Turks are Turks and they are living in Turkey, Armenians inhabiting the southern boarders of the Soviet Union have no choice but to seek Russian protection, irrespective of the kind of government which rules that country. This is a political affinity and has nothing to do with ideologies. Only deranged Armenian politicos and pollical adventurers can think otherwise.”

Not all of course in Armenia are as adamant as Antranig Chalabian was.

But he also questioned and qualified that relationship and wrote: “Will the present-day Soviet rulers of glasnost and perestroika (openness and restructuring) be able to see the important role a greater and stronger Armenia can play in the political network of religious minded peoples on the southern borders of their empire? It remains to be seen.” 

Russia, Antranig wrote, is vulnerable at its southern border. Armenia, Chalabian said, is Russia’s natural and most reliable ally and the best guarantor of its southern border. But he also cautioned reflecting on history and said: “The Byzantine emperors made mistakes and they paid dearly for them. Russia’s tsars, in their turn, were incapable of seeing their southern borders were inhabited not by White Russians but by potentially dangerous Turkish peoples. In the face of that danger, instead of creating a great and autonomous Armenian state to divide and weaken those peoples, they aspired for an Armenia without Armenians, thus strengthening and uniting their own enemies!”

Over thirty years have passed since Soviet Union broke apart and Armenia regained its independence. But it is apparent that Russia, in the present, does not see the “the important role a greater and a stronger Armenia can play” as a buffer for Mother Russia in its southern border. I do not think we can negate Russia’s tilt has been away from its natural ally Armenia and has been towards Azerbaijan, naturally I mean to say to Azerbaijan-Turkey alliance. 

Armenia is small country to be of any military and economic concern for Russia or Turkey. However, Russia’s recent overreaction to Armenia military exercising with a token American forces in Armenia, where Russia maintains a battalion, is an indication that Armenia, the homeland of the global Armenian nation, is a very consequential country for Russia but it fails to treats it as a strategic ally, but rather takes Armenia for granted subject to its will.

Thus, Armenia historically as well as in the present continues to be caught between East and West and as such between two regional superpowers, the United States in the West and Russia in the East who are testing their military prowess and thus political, not on their grounds, but on other countries’ grounds, surely Ukraine and no less in Syria as well. 

Armenia’s Northeastern uncle Russia does not or cannot provide, Armenia the security Armenia needs to maintain its sovereignty. Consequently, Armenia has been reaching out to countries in the west. A considerable segment of the Armenians enjoys the benefits of Western civilization and live in the West and in Americas. Armenia appears to have no choice but also to tilt westward as its security dictates. But surely Armenia does intend to pursue a policy that will infringe upon the Russian interests in Armenia at its southernmost border. Nothing between Armenian and Russian relationship has changed and likely will not change to be of consequential concern to Russia’s security as far as Armenia is concerned, other than perceptions and perceptions are reality.  

Can Armenia’s policy be perceived dangerous? 

Of course, it can. But with an astute cohesive policy it does not have to be perceived so.  

Time will tell.

Note; Those interested may read Antranig Chalabianbs "Emperors, Tsars and Commissars" booklet : http://vhapelian.blogspot.com/2023/08/antranig-chalabian-emperors-tsars-and.html