Vahe H. Apelian
Bear with me as I state the obvious.
I am not an expert on warfare. But I will take the liberty saying that I was a championship chess player in my college years and was a member of the American University of Beirut’s chess club whose president was Artin Boghossian a math major who currently resides in Canada.
Chess is a war game. Playing the game is akin to strategizing a winning battle and a winning war. One of the greatest stumbling blocks in strategizing is the realization that the player failed to see the obvious move the opponent could make, and realizes it only after having the opponent make the move. That happens because the player gets so much engrossed in his thoughts and in his strategizing that the player fails to think like the opponent would. Maybe the greatest asset for a chess player is strategizing the game from the opponent’s perspective, as the player lays down his or her strategy.
I felt the need to have the above two opening paragraphs noted lest I may be construed not having the best interest of Armenia in mind having attached the notes from my non-Armenian friend, whom I consider an expert in Armenian history and Armenian affairs as much as value him for being the Armenian he has chosen to be.
The attached are what he wrote to me.
On Madrid Principle
I don't think there was an agreement, just principles proposed by the OSCE Minsk Group, which Armenia and Azerbaijan sometimes referenced during discussions.
On Lachin Corridor
As far as I know, in the late Soviet era (before the 1990 war) Aghavno and Lachin itself were Azerbaijani towns/villages that were part of the Azerbaijani SSR proper that were captured by Armenian forces during the 1990s war, destroyed and purged of their Azerbaijani populations, rebuilt by Armenians (I think with diaspora support in the case of Aghavno), resettled with Armenians (I think foreign Armenians in the case of Aghavno), and renamed with Armenian names. The only reason these towns/villages did not go back to Azerbaijan under the 2020 ceasefire agreement is that Armenia needed a road to Stepanakert and these towns/villages were on/near the road.
The older history of the region is more complicated and I don't know all of it. Certainly 300-500 years ago there was still a significant Armenian presence there. Under Russian Empire control in the 19th century that whole area was part of Elizavetpol province and Armenia and Azerbaijan had competing claims during the independence era.
The Soviets awarded almost all of the province to the Azerbaijani SSR except modern Syunik (the east part of the Zangeur district of Elizavetpol province) was carved out to be part of the Armenian SSR since Armenians had established control of it during the independence-era wars (which is why Azerbaijani nationalists today claim that territory as East Zangezur).
The eastern 1/3 of Zangezur was made a part of the Azerbaijani SSR, and it is this region where the Lachin corridor is today (along with Kalbajar, Zangilan, etc.). As you know, the Soviets carved out Nagorno Karabakh as the Armenian part of Azerbaijani-controlled Karabakh and made it autonomous under Azerbaijani SSR administration. In the early Soviet era I think this "East Zangeur" region was sparsely populated, mostly by semi-nomadic Shia Kurds. I don't know when or how they became the majority there. Over the next decades Moscow and Baku took bits of land away from Syunik and Nagorno Karabakh to expand their separation a bit, originally to establish a "Red Kurdistan". But over time many of the Kurds were resettled and populated with Azerbaijanis. There might have been some Armenian villages there (and there certainly are medieval and early modern era Armenian cultural heritage objects there), but by the time of the collapse of the USSR that region was recognized as an Azerbaijani and maybe Kurdish part of the Azerbaijani SSR proper (no special status). That area was entirely ethnically-cleansed by ethnic Armenian forces during the 1990s war.
I think both Azerbaijanis and Armenians have their own ways of deluding themselves when it comes to the Karabakh region, such that the history in culture becomes "clearly Armenian" or "clearly Azerbaijani". But there is a mixed record of settlement and political control over time, so everything is not so clear. I would say there is a shared heritage, especially over the past 200-300 years.
On Artsakh Status
I don't think NKAO will get any status now. From Azerbaijan's perspective, this whole conflict arose because NKAO got a special status in the USSR, so giving NKAO a special status will be like a time bomb ticking inside their country, a threat of a new independence movement. The best NKAO Armenians can hope for is some sort of deal to protect their rights and security in Azerabaijan. But after watching the events of the past 9 months or so, I think NKAO and Armenia itself will be lucky to avoid a new war. I don't think NKAO Armenians are going to get any more protections than Aliyev's word unless one of the more powerful international community players (Russia, USA, EU, etc.) is willing and able to apply more leverage to Azerbaijan, or unless NKAO Armenians can convince Aliyev that they will fight and a new war will be too publicly messy to be worth it. I'm not sure either is possible, but we'll see. There are still more peace negotiations coming up. I am concerned that NKAO will be forcefully ethnically-cleansed, or maybe just "softly" cleansed when living in Armenia starts to look better than living in NKAO as an integral part of Azerbaijan.
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