Post 44-Day Artsakh War Armenian Government

I copied my August 2, 2021 updated posting on my Facebook page in my blog for archiving. Vahe H Apelian

August 2, 2021, the Constitutional Court (CC) upheld the decision of the Central Electoral Commission, declaring the criticism leveled by the opposition to be insufficient to invalidate the election results. 

Upon CC’s approval of the election results, the acting Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan congratulated the two opposition parties and invited them to cooperate with the majority. Urging to refrain from using uncalled for vocabulary but to engage in constructive work. Consequently, the National Assembly of the Republic of Armenia is set to go and a new, post-snap election government will be formed in due time.

How Many Wil be in New Armenian National Assembly?

By law the National Assembly should have a minimum of 101 elected delegates with additional four seats allocated to minorities, consequently the total number is 105. However, the number the elected delegates varies. The previous NA had 132 delegates. The change in the number of delegates is dependent upon the election results. There is a mathematical basis for the change in the number of delegates. (See http://vhapelian.blogspot.com/2018/12/why-armenian-national-assembly-numbers.html)

This time around, I expect it to be 105, the minimum seats mandated by law. Pashinyan’s “Civil Contract” will have 71 delegates, Kocharian led “Armenia” Coalition will have 27 delegates and the Sargsyan/Vanetsian led “I Have Honor” coalition will have 7 delegates.

How Did These Numbers Come About?

Although “Civil Contract” had approximately 54.5% of the votes but it will have 2/3 of the delegates and even though “I Have Honor” Coalition did not secure the 7% threshold, but it will have representatives in the NA because the law mandates at least 3 parties or coalitions to be represented in the NA constituting 1/3 of the delegates as opposition. Since “I Have Honor” coalition, had the largest votes among the rest, it will be represented in NA . 

Three (3) minority seats will be to the “Civil Contract” and 1 for the opposition but in favor of the “Armenia” Coalition, who had the lion’s share of the opposition votes. I do not know who are the minorities. 

The attached tabulation will shed light as how the number of delegates is assigned in terms of the percentage of the votes the three coalitions received. 

The actual number of seats turned out to be 107

What Will Happen on August 2, 2021?

The first sitting of the new National Assembly will be convened on August 2. During the first sitting, an oath-taking ceremony will take place. Subsequently, the Speaker of the National Assembly and the three Vice-Speakers (one of them from the opposition) and the Chairmen of the Standing Committees will be elected. On the same day, the President of the Republic will appoint the candidate nominated by the majority of the National Assembly as the Prime Minister. Naturally Nikol Pashinyan is expected to be the nominee PM. Henceforth the delegates in the NA will address him deferentially as Mr. Prime Minister - Baron Varchabed.

Subsequent to his confirmation, the PM will form the new government. The process is expected to last about two weeks, ushering the country into its post 44-Day Artsakh war governance.