Does the PM of Armenia govern the country with an unchecked authority?
By law the Armenian National Assembly will have a minimum of 101 seats and an additional 4 seats allocated to the minorities, totaling 105 seats. It also stipulated by law that 1/3 of the National Assembly should comprise the opposition. Hence of that minimum 105 seats, 35 seats should be allocated to the opposition and 70 to the leading party or coalition.
But it has been reported that the upcoming National Assembly will number 132.
How did this number of seats come about, the the number of delegates in the NA under PM Sargsyan short premiership was 105?
Thanks to my friend Jeffry T. Urban, I have come to understand the following plausible explanation. Please follow the rest of the text.
To have representatives in the National Assembly, a party should secure at least 5% of the votes cast and a coalition should secure at least 7% of the votes cast. Remember, according to the parliamentarian system of governance Armenia adopted, the voters vote for a party, not for a specific candidate. Obviously the prominent and the more visible from each party and coalitions run the campaign. Nikol Pashinyan ran the campaign on behalf of the My Step coalition.
The election results indicated that only 3 of the eleven total numbers of parties and coalitions who participated in the election met the criteria and they will constitute the upcoming National Assembly. They were as follows and secured the following percentages of the votes cast:
My Step coalition secured 70.43% of the votes.
Prosperous Armenia party secured 8.27% of the votes
Bright Armenia party secured 6.37% of the votes.
Now
If we were to gauge the percentage secured by each of the three entities (70.43% + 8.27% + 6.37% = 85.07%), we come with the following figures:
My Step coalition represents (70.43/85.07)*100 = 82.79% of the upcoming National Assembly.
Prosperous Armenia party represents (8.27/85.07)*100 = 9.72% of the upcoming National Assembly
Bright Armenia party represents (6.37/85.07)*100 = 7.48 % of upcoming the National Assembly
Since the National Assembly should have a minimum of 101 seats, then each entity secured the following number of the seats in the National Assembly
My Step coalition secured at least (101*82.79%) = 84 seats
Prosperous Armenia party secured at least = 10 seat
Bright Armenia party secured at least = 8 seats
Totaling 102 seats
It appears that My Step will also acquire the 4 seats reserved for the minorities; hence My Step coalition will have 88 seats.
But by law, the 88 seats should represent 2/3 of the National Assembly, the 1/3 being reserved for the opposition. Hence the National Assembly should total 132 seats. That is to say 88 of the administration and 44 seats for the opposition.
The remaining seats (44 seats – 10 seats (Prosperous Armenia) – 8 seats (Bright Armenia) = 26 seats will be allocated to the Prosperous Armenia and Bright Armenia parties in the same ratio they occupy now, that is to say 10:8 ratio. Consequently, 14 seats most likely will be allocated to Prosperous Armenia and 12 seats will most likely be allocated to Bright Armenia, making the final likely make up the National Assembly as follows:
My Step coalition will have 88 seats.
Prosperous Armenia will have 24 seats.
Bright Armenia will have 20 seats.
Totaling 132 seats in all in National Assembly.
Quoting Wikipedia: “The National Assembly is a unicameral body. The National Assembly consists of at least 101 seats, but with additional seats allocated, it may grow and reach to about 200 seats in extremely rare cases.” The system caters to the constitutional mandate of 1/3 opposition and naturally honors the percentage of votes cast in favor of a party or coalition. To complicate matters 1/3 of the delegates should be women.
Therefore, it remains to be seen how many will be in the post June 20, 2021 National Assembly and how many of them will be women. No easy matters when it comes to Armenia!
updated on 7/7/2021
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