Hayrabed Effendi’s Prophecy

 Vahe H. Apelian

 I quote from Arpiar Arpiarian's novel “Red Offering” ( Garmir Jamouts - Կարմիր ժամուց). It is Hayrabed Effendi, the protagonist, who is alerting all those around him. He says: “Our elders used to say – “May God not spare the Armenians from the Turkish club. But may God also not spare the Turks from the Moscow’s club”. - From here on, the Turk’s club will swing more forcefully upon our heads, because the Moscow’s club does not appear to be swinging over the Turk’s head.” (You may read the actual quote below)

It is claimed that Arpiar Arpiarian wrote the book in 1901-1902, time frame.  The book was translated to French last year. It has withstood the test of time.

I quote from my blog: (http://vhapelian.blogspot.com/2021/12/machiavellis-prince-and-arpiars-red.html)

“The crux of the Arpiar’s novel is the clash between a wealthy Armenian by the name Hayrabed Effendi and a young priest from the interior by the name Hayr Houssig. Hayrabed Effendi was very influential in a suburb of Constantinople called Ortakiugh. The Effendi was a devout Christian and never missed attending mass. He gave generously but was very cautious in anything he thought remotely might raise the ire of the local pasha. 

Der Houssig, on the other hand, was a daring and an enlightened priest who improved the lot of his village. Der Houssing attributed his enlightenment to his understanding of the Armenian bible in vernacular left in the village by an Armenian evangelical pastor, whom the villagers mistreated and let him flee for his life. In fact, when he met the pastor years later, he presented himself as his disciple, to the surprise of the badvelli (pastor) who had a vague recollection of the mistreatment he had received in Der Houssig’s village as well.

 Time passed and the Armenians experienced what must have been the Hamidian massacres. During which time Hayrabed Effendi was imprisoned, humiliated in spite of his good rapport with the pasha. When push came to shove, he had become a nobody. Der Houssing also was imprisoned. When calm returned, both Hayrabed Effendi and Der Houssig happened to meet again and when Hayrabed Effendi found out that Der Houssig’s village had fared well because of the preparations they had vested over the years to be self-reliant in assuring their safety, security  and well-being. 

Hearing that Der Houssig’s village had fared well, it dawned on the Efendi that he had misunderstood Der Houssig instead of appreciating the wisdom of the village priest from the interior of the country, he had chastised him. To make amends for having mistreated the priest, he offered Der Houssig a gold coin. When Der Houssig objected, Hayrabed Effendi insisted, and he said that its his “red offering”. That is to say, towards the purchase of guns.

In nutshell that is what the book is about. It was a mandatory reading in the Armenian schools to laud the virtue of self-reliance through arms. In fact, the cover of the book reflected the theme that our teachers wanted to convey to us." But in reality, that is not all Arpiar Arpiarian wanted to convey.  Those who are interested may read: http://vhapelian.blogspot.com/2021/12/arpiar-arpiarians-red-offering.html

I do not know why Hayrabed Effendi said that our ancestors had wished the Turkish club did not spare them. Was it because, on our own, they thought we would not do any better? But their wish that at the same time the Russian club did spare the Turks is understandable.  Over one hundred twenty years ago, Hyrabed Efendi’s prophecy rings true this very day: “From here on, the Turk’s club will  swing more forcefully upon our heads, because the Moscow’s club does not appear to be swinging over the Turk's’head.” 

I quoted Hayrabed Effendi because I think that the Turks and Azeris are mercilessly toying with their political entente, if not their tacit partner, the Russians, if such an adjective can be used in realpolitik. The statements Erdogan makes, the indifference Azeris display, the silence Russians keep, while seemingly Mother Russia  is at the end of its tether in its southernmost portal, the Caucasus, lead me to think that we are in this for the long haul.

In the end, it seems, more than anyone else, all hinges on the legendary resilience of the descendants of the legendary  meliks on the mountainous Karabagh.

Note: The quote in Armenian: «Մեր հիներուն խօսքն էր, թէ «Աստուած տաճկին թոփուզը հայուն գլխէն պակաս չընէ, բայց՝ Մոսկովին թոփուզ ն ալ տաճկին գլխէն պակաս չընէ»։ Ասկէ ետքը տաճկին թոփուզը առաջուընէ աւելի ուժով գլխնուս պիտի զարնուի, վասնզի Մոսկովին թոփուզը տաճկին գլխուն վրայ չի տեսնուիր կոր։»