Vaհe H Apelian
Much has been written about the Second Artsakh War, the 44-Day war Armenia regrettably lost. Much also will be written.
Today I read two comments in the Armenian Weekly about the Second Artsakh War. I quoted the comments below withholding the commentators’ names. I also linked what Turkish media actually said during and after the war, as reported by Levon Sharoyan.
The two comments in the Weekly were the following:
First comment: “We did not lose the Artsakh war, Artsakh was essentially left on its own to defend itself, still held its own despite being outnumbered and outgunned, and finally given away by Pashoglu for a few billion dollars.”
Second comment: “Artsakh was betrayed and thrown under the bus by Pashinyan. Period. The loss of Artsakh was not inevitable and it was absolutely avoidable.”
I wondered what would AI say about Armenia’s likelihood winning the Second Artsakh War.
This is how AI responded.
Armenia's likelihood of winning the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020 was low from a strategic standpoint, given the severe asymmetry in military technology, economic resources, and geopolitical backing.
[1] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Nagorno-Karabakh_War),
[2] (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/22/nagorno-karabakh-how-did-azerbaijan-triumph-over-armenia),
[3] (https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/online-analysis/2021/03/lessons-of-nagorno-karabakh/)Strategic
Technological and Strategic Gaps
Drones:
Azerbaijan deployed sophisticated, Israeli- and Turkish-manufactured Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs)—such as Bayraktar TB2 drones—which systematically dismantled Armenian air defense systems, armor, and artillery.
[1] (https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/online-analysis/2021/03/lessons-of-nagorno-karabakh/),
[2] (https://atlasinstitute.org/how-armenia-lost-the-fortress-region-during-the-second-karabakh-war/),
Obsolete doctrine:
The Armenian and Artsakh military command relied on static trench-warfare strategies left over from the 1990s, making troops highly vulnerable to aerial reconnaissance and precision strikes.
[1] (https://atlasinstitute.org/how-armenia-lost-the-fortress-region-during-the-second-karabakh-war/),
[2](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/22/nagorno-karabakh-how-did-azerbaijan-triumph-over-armenia)
Alliances:
Azerbaijan received crucial military, intelligence, and political backing from Turkey, while Armenia's regional allies did not intervene directly in the conflict.
[1] (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/22/nagorno-karabakh-how-did-azerbaijan-triumph-over-armenia)
Lack of Foreign Support:
Azerbaijan received robust military, intelligence, and political backing from Turkey, whereas Armenia fought largely isolated without equivalent external intervention.
[2] (https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/online-analysis/2021/03/lessons-of-nagorno-karabakh/)
Economic Disparity:
Azerbaijan’s oil-funded state budget allowed it to sustain and decisively outspend resource-poor Armenia in a prolonged or high-intensity technological conflict.
[1] (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/22/nagorno-karabakh-how-did-azerbaijan-triumph-over-armenia)
[1] (https://atlasinstitute.org/how-armenia-lost-the-fortress-region-during-the-second-karabakh-war/),
[2](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/22/nagorno-karabakh-how-did-azerbaijan-triumph-over-armenia)
Communication Breakdown:
Severe targeting of communication lines led to a complete failure of command and control, preventing field officers from effectively reacting to Azerbaijani advances.
[1] (https://atlasinstitute.org/how-armenia-lost-the-fortress-region-during-the-second-karabakh-war/)
Ultimately, these combined economic, tactical, and technological imbalances made an Armenian victory unlikely, culminating in a Russian-brokered ceasefire that amounted to a decisive defeat.
[1](https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/Online-Exclusive/2021-OLE/Erickson/)
The following are the links to what Turkish media said, during the war and at the conclusion of the war.
Link: Turkish media during the war: https://vhapelian.blogspot.com/2020/10/what-does-turkish-media-say.html
Link: Turkish media after the war: https://vhapelian.blogspot.com/2021/05/let-me-ease-you-pain-dear-artsakh.html
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| ChatGPT generated. I added the black framing |
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