Monday Morning Opposition

Vaհe H Apelian  

"Monday morning quarterback" is an American saying used to describe a person criticizing, or offering advice after an event has already taken place. American professional football, NFL games are typically played on Sundays. On Monday, all that is said is hind sight, which, as another saying goes, is 20/20, that is to say event are assumed to be viewed with perfect clarity that was absent when it was occurring.

The opposition in in the new Armenian National Assembly make-up may very well be in such predicaments, because come Monday June 14, 2027, the day after vote recounting is over and the election results are officially declared, it is highly likely that PM Nikol Pashinyan/Civil Contract, will lose constitutional majority. For the very first time the Republic of Armenia will have a government that does not enjoy constitutional majority, and hence the implementation of some very consequential policies, such as peaceful relation with its immediate neighbors, will hinge on the opposition siding with the government or not. For the very first time, the opposition will also bear the consequences of its decision. Thus far the opposition, I am referring to the opposition to Nikol Pashinyan led government, had it very easy. Whenever government proposed something, the opposition opposed it knowing full well that the government, having constitutional majority, may pass the resolution without its consent, and hence the opposition absolved itself from any responsibility. See, I told you, peace is more than a state of no war or open communication.

It is highly likely that Azerbaijan will exploit lame duck or care-taker Armenian government that does not  have constitutional mandate, to the hilt and not sign peace with Armenia until the unquestioned majority of the Armenian National Assembly endorses the peace. The opposition thus far has been acting as it the policies Nikol Pashinyan led Civil Contract was pressing, was Civil Contract’s policies, not Armenia’s policies and acted irresponsibly. That will not be the case if the governemt loses its constitutional mandate. The opposition will bear the consequences of its opposition on the lives of the citizens of Armenia.

 It is higly likely that PM Nikol Pashinyan will not be able to sign peace with Azerbaijan, unless he has the support of the opposition or elements of the opposition that has not supported Nikol Pashinyan’s cross road for peace initiative. If the opposition rejects Nikol Pashinyan’s peace initiative and conditions Armenia signing peace with Azerbaijan on the resolutions of the issues that it has raised such as, expulsion of Azerbaijan from the 200 square kilometers of  occupied land, release of the Armenian prisoners held in Baku,  not amend the Constitution and have the Hrchagakir, the Declaration or the Manifesto, the cornerstone of the Armenian constitution,  etc., Armenia may likely face continued blockage of most of its borders, and may even have the borders in a tense state. 

The Nikol Pashinyan let government likely may continue pursuing most of its policies that are internal to Armenia, such as anti corruption,while Armenia remains land-locked along most of its borders until such time, when Turkey and Azerbaijan may open their borders.