A litmus test awaits Armenia

Vaհe H Apelian  

A litmus test awaits Armenia, as an indicator whether it wants and can achieve peaceful relations with its immediate neighbors Azerbaijan and Turkey

Today, MassisPost reported that PM Nikol Pashinyan has said that Civil Contract’s Election results are “Impeccably Legal,” and highlights direct dialogue with Azerbaijan. However, I do not think the Civil Contract government can sign peace treaty with Azerbaijan; nor do I think that Azerbaijan will sign a peace treaty with Civil Contract government, given that it does not command the constitutional majority in the National Assembly. Azerbaijan is already exploiting the Armenian government’s razor thin majority in the National Assembly to a hilt by intensifying its Western Zankezur narrative. 

The post June 7, 2026 election has put the opposition in in the Armenian National Assembly in a new predicament. For the very first time the Republic of Armenia has a government that does not enjoy constitutional majority it sought, and hence the implementation of some very consequential policies, such as Armenia’s peaceful relation with its immediate neighbors, will hinge on the opposition siding with the government or not. The opposition will bear the consequences of its decision. Thus far the opposition, I am referring to the opposition to Nikol Pashinyan led government, had it very easy. Whenever government proposed something, the opposition opposed it knowing full well that the government, having constitutional majority, could implement it without its consent. But that is no more the case.

The opposition’s stand will shape Armenia’s relations with its immediate forever neighbors, including of course Azerbaijan and Turkey. 

The Nikol Pashinyan led government will continue pursuing most of its policies that are internal to Armenia, such as the anti-corruption campaign, building schools, roads, etc. while Armenia remains land-locked along most of its borders, and in a state of no-peace until such time when peaceful, no-war state prevails, and Turkey and Azerbaijan may open their borders. Turkey's and Azerbaijan's borders make around 87% of Armenia's border. 

In July 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin strongly urged then-Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to engage in diplomatic reconciliation with Turkey.  I am not sure if he is urging the same to his proxies in Armenia. Syria’s relations with Turkey remained hostile. In December 2024, Turkish proxy forces in Syria toppled the Assad regime in Damascus. Putin offered Assad a refuge and no more. Armenia may not fare any better in its Syunik region’s state may not far any better and Putin’s reaction may not be any different, one of indifference to Armenia’s plight.

Normalizing relations with its immediate neighbors will depend on the opposition. Even if Russophile, Armenia cannot long maintain a no peace and a no war state. It behooves Armenia to have a peace deal with Azerbaijan and Turkey, the sooner the better, taking advantage of its favorable relations with the U.S. and the West. Hrair Balian, former director of Carter Institute, noted that “Crucially, TRIPP has already achieved something underappreciated: it deferred Azerbaijan’s otherwise imminent military seizure of the corridor. President Aliyev had openly warned the corridor would be established “whether Armenia wants it or not.” U.S. engagement postponed that threat indefinitely.” 

U.S. engagement may have deffered that threat indefinitely. But surely not forever.