It is naive to think that it's about........

 Vahe H Apelian

 

It is naïve to be led by “Hye, Haiestan, Hierenik, and God” slogan of the “Davush for Homeland” movement. Before I elaborate on my perception, I would like to point to the followings.

Two days ago, on May 6, Al Jazeera reported that Georgia’s parliament, voted 84 to 30 in favor of a law that will strengthen Russia’s influence in Georgia. Opposition MPs clashed with members of the ruling Georgian Dream party.

The law that was approved is for “foreign agents”. It requires that media and NGOs to register as “pursuing the interests of a foreign power” if they receive more than a certain percentage of their funding from abroad. The law is seen by many as influenced by similar legislation in Russia, which has been used to clamp down on the Kremlin’s political opponents and dissent.

Al Jazeera reported members of the parliament fought each other and that protester skirmished with riot police in the street outside the parliament building in the center of the capital, Tbilisi. 

On the Armenia Homefront, not even a month before the Georgia civil unrest, the Georgian PM Irakli Kobakhidze visited Armenia and was received with open arms and was bid farewell with fraternal good byes.  I quote Armen press: 

YEREVAN, MARCH 25, ARMENPRESS. “The official visit of Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze to Armenia has ended, the press service of the Armenian Government said. As part of the visit, a meeting between the Prime Ministers of Armenia and Georgia, Nikol Pashinyan and Irakli Kobakhidze, was held. The Prime Minister of Georgia was also hosted by the President of the Republic of Armenia, Vahagn Khachaturyan. Irakli Kobakhidze visited the Tsitsernakaberd Memorial Complex during his official visit to Armenia.”

What was Georgia’s PM’s visit for? 

For all outward appearance it was a meeting of two prime ministers who harbor similar visions. But obviously the recent events in Georgia raise serious concerns and give rise to speculations. Behind the open arms welcome, there may have been serious issues that would negate the outward appearances. It could be that Georgian PM sought Nikol Pachinyan to have Western powers lend him support in Georgia It could be that  opposition in Georgia mustered the upper hand and brought Georgia to the present creating almost anarchic situation, but the law passed.  It could be over the Armenian populated Javakh region.

Armenia is in a mine field that is South Caucasus, or is sailing on stormy seas. Will it be able to walk through the minefield or sail through the stormy seas? It will be seen. But it can be argued that Armenia can walk through the mine field or navigate on the stormy seas, if Armenians are united in wanting to make their ostensibly historic vision of having a free, independent, and a democratic sovereign homeland, a reality.  But forging it into a working reality is infinitely more difficult than to dream or sing about it.

It is naïve to think that the forces that stand behind and bankroll the “Davush for Homeland” movement with a sentimental slogan of “Hye, Hiestan, Hierenik, God”, are for the free, independent, democratic, and sovereign Armenia in peace with its neighbors and in peaceful relations with the rest of the world, where most of the Armenians live, prosper and enjoy citizenships that empower them individually. The oligarchic bankrollers have much to lose in a transparent, orderly, democratic country.

Armenia has stated that it does not aim to join NATO in its rapprochement to the West. Armenia continues to be a member of CSTO, albeit inactive. The prime minister of Armenia heads the EEU, and presided over the 10^th anniversary of the Treaty of Eurasian Economic Union.

I quote:

On May 9, 2024, the Associated Press reported the following: “Putin hosted Nikol Pashinyan for talks following a summit of the Eurasian Economic Union, a Moscow-dominated economic alliance they both attended earlier in the day. The negotiations came a day after Putin began his fifth term at a glittering Kremlin inauguration.

In brief remarks at the start of the talks, Putin said that bilateral trade was growing, but acknowledged “some issues concerning security in the region.” Pashinyan, who last visited Moscow in December, said that “certain issues have piled up since then.”

It is no secret that Armenia’s ties with its longtime sponsor and ally Russia have grown increasingly strained, especially after Azerbaijan waged a lightning military campaign in September of last year, as Russia stood idle, resulting in the complete depopulation of Armenians from its historic Artsakh/Nagorno Karabagh native land, and abduction of eight of its leaders.

Armenia is engaging in a balancing act between East and West and among its neighbors in the region. Armenia can chart its own course as a sovereign, free, independent democratic nation if the Armenians are for it. The “Davush for Homeland” movement with it “Hye, Hiestan, Hierenic, God” slogan is not contributing to that vision.

The powerful who stand behind the movement and bankroll it is the oligarchy of Armenia. They have all the reasons to have the movement topple the elected government and have a government dominated by its historical ally, Russia. The oligarchy has a lot to gain, but the everyday Armenian has everything to lose as it will cease to live in a free, independent and democratic county that would reward the individual on its own merit.  

A person must be willfully blind not to realize that, other than Armenia, the countries that make up the Russian dominated  EEU (Eurasian Economic Usnon)  and CSTO: Russia, Belarus, Kazahstan, Krygzstan, Tajikistan are as close to democracy and to the rule of the law, as the moon is to the earth. Imagine Armenia confined to deal only with them on the East, or deal with the West according to the Eurasia's - read Russia's - tempo.

The Armenian is at a cross road. It has to make a hard choice.