Two peace deals: one for South Caucasus and the other for Middle East

Vaհe H Apelian

 

There are huge geopolitical rearrangements.  I refrain from qualifying them as a change. The rearrangements have come about by the relentless drive of president Trump. Whether these rearrangements will become changes for a new world order for foreseeable future, as history goes, remains uncertain.

The South Caucus peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan came about on August 8, 2025 when the  Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev signed a declaration in a ceremony at the White House. The agreement included a U.S.-developed transport route, named the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity”. More important for Armenia is the thrust of the peace deal is for  recognition of MUTUAL TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY (տարացքային ամողջականութիւն), MUTUAL SOVEREIGHNTY (,ինքնիշխանութիւն), MUTUAL BORDER SANCTITY (Սահմանային անձռմխելիութիւն) and  ABSENCE OF MUTUAL THREAT OF  FORCE  (ուժի բացառում), now and in the future. 

On October 8, 2025, Israel and Hamas agreed to a U.S. brokered ceasefire proposal, which went into effect two days later, and following the release of Israeli hostages by Hamas and Palestinian prisoners by Israel, president Trump and other world leaders, signed on October 13, 2025, a broader peace declaration in Egypt. 

In both cases the implementation of these two peace deals remains uncertain. Observers note that these two deals represent a significant geopolitical shift. But the full implementation and the long-term successes are not assured.

In both cases there is a no parity between the adversaries. In both cases it is not a peace deal between two equals. Azerbaijan dominates militarily over Armenia. Israel dominates militarily over the Palestinian armed forces.

In both cases making these two peace deals a reality for the foreseeable future largely depends on the vision and the willingness of the adversaries, irrespective whether the U.S. acts, in their views, as impartial broker or not.

 Armenia seems to be determined to make the peace deal a reality. Armenia regards August 8, 2025 agreement a natural progression of its crossroad for peace initiative the Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan proposed during the Tbilisi Silk Road Forum on October 26, 2023, that was held in Georgia.  Nikol Pashinyan has decried president Aliev’s provocative terms but stays the course and seems to be determined to have the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), a reality 

 The MIDDLE EAST peace deal came about two years after the Palestinian coordinated attack on Southern Israel and taking hostages on October 7, 2023. Much death and destruction ensued during the following two years leading to the October 13, 2025 peace deal for the Middle East. I am not sure how determined Palestinians are to stay the course, irrespective of Israeli provocations, that is most likely to come. Will the Palestinians stay the course and act, or will the Palestinians react? 

As far as I am concerned the Palestinians and the Arabs have the upper hand in the long run of history. The crusaders were the mightiest force in the region. They stayed in the Middle East for 200 years.  In the end, they did not even leave much of a legacy, other than a few castles. In historical context, Israel cannot survive as a fortified castle in the region, but the Arabs will continue to remain in the Middle East and will shape it.