Vaհe H Apelian
Recently I read the following by Dave Rolph: “The term “stay the course” was an old nautical term of navigation meaning “to continue in the proper direction.” It was later used by Winston Churchill, Ronald Reagan and both George Bushes as an exhortation to not give up or turn back.» Armenia stayed the course for the Crossroad for Peace strategic initiative, the PM Nikol Pashinyan lounged on October 2023, and agreed to the going peace deal with Azerbaijan.
But I did not expect that Aliyev will sign the peace deal the Armenian FM announced on March 13, 2025, after having Armenia accept the last two contesting points of the peace deal that was in progress for the past two years or more. In my following blog titled: “What does this peace deal accomplish? My take”, on Monday March 17, 2025 -see the link below - I wrote the following.
I quote : “The issue is existential. However imperfect a peace deal this may be, if signed, as Azerbaijan will do its utmost to sink it, it will be for Armenians to support the government in the peace deal they have worked out and to rally around it to assure that the premises of the peace deal are implemented.”
Yes, let us brace ourselves for the upcoming saga. Aliyev signing the peace deal is not in the immediate future, but Armenia will have to stay the course the PM Nikol Pashinyan has outlined in the Crossroad for Peace initiative he spearheads.
The Aliyev’s reluctance is expected. Let us be reminded that the cornerstone of Aliyev’s domestic legitimacy was his policy for depopulating Nagorno-Karabakh of its ethnic Armenians. He succeeded in doing it. There are no Armenians left in Azerbaijan. Emboldened by his success in depopulating Artskah, the axis of Aliyev’s domestic policy is now the so called Western Azerbaijan, if not in its entirety, then at least to gain a corridor, he calls Zankezur Corridor, to have a land connection with Nakhichevan. With the Crossroads Peace both Armenia and Azerbaijan will recognize their MUTUAL TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY (տարացքային ամողջականութիւն), MUTUAL SOVEREIGHNTY (,ինքնիշխանութիւն), MUTUAL BORDER SANCTITY (Սահմանային անձռմխելիութիւն) and ABSENCE OF MUTUAL THREAT OF FORCE (ուժի բացառում). Surely Aliyev knows that Azerbaiijan does not face a threat on these premises from Armenia. I do not envision Aliyev will sign the peace treaty in the near or foreseeable future.
But Armenia will stay its course for peaceful coexistence with its neighbors within the former Soviet Socialist Republic of Armenia as agreed in the Alma-Ata.
The Alma-Ata protocols came about on December 21, 1991 – Soviet Armenia had already declared itself independent on September 21, 1991 - when and where the Soviet Union was declared dissolved and the following former Soviet Socialist States agreed to recognized each other’s territories, as constituent states of the Soviet Union. The following former Soviet Socialist agreed on the protocol: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekstan. By signing the peace deal Aliyev would have committed himself, in front of the international family of nations, to formally abide by the Alma-Ata protocol.
It is natural that Aliyev would not want to go out of his way to abide by the protocol.
But Armenia will stay its course.
Let us brace ourselves that Azerbaijan will attempt to stir the Armenian public against itself by resorting to provocations. Let us also brace ourselves that the expected provocations may be deadly and regrettably there may be casualties.
But Armenia will stay it course.
There is a price to pay for every strategy. Armenia’s Crossroad for Peace strategic imitative is no different. Other strategic initiative most likely will have disastrous consequences to the nascent Republic of Armenia.
Armenia will stay it course.
The non-violent peaceful Gandhi strategy challenged the mightiest force in his time, the British Empire and India gained its independence.
By staying the Crossroad for Peace strategic initiative, Armenia is bound to secure for its citizens the right to live securely, peacefully and prosper in Armenia, and it will.
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The link: “What does this peace deal accomplish? My take”: https://vhapelian.blogspot.com/2025/03/what-does-this-peace-deal-accomplish-my_17.html
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