As Armenian History Unfolds

Vahe H. Apelian

Unbeknownst to me I happened to write this blog the day, 10/9/2020, the trilateral agreement was being signed by Armenia, Russia, Azerbaijan ending the war on Artsakh.

 

It will be a historic understatement to claim that we are witnessing a monumental unfolding of the modern Armenian history. From reports emanating from Armenia, let alone international media, the Armenian historical town Shushi has fallen and Stepanakert is in endanger to fall. The short lived First Republic of Armenia’s fourth defense minister Drasdamad Ganayan (Dro) has famously said that whoever controls Shushi controls Artsakh. But it remains to be seen whether the Turkabaijan ground forces will be able to control the terrain. 

External events of such magnitude cause internal fissures. Already voices are being heard demanding that the PM Pachinyan resign. In fact, the PM Pachinyan government may collapse, whether there is a demand for his resignation or not. The country is not in a position to resort to democratic process and elect a new leader who will form a new government. PM Pachinyan’s replacement will then come about through back door horse trading between the many political parties who vie for power. 

A segment of the population who is under tremendous stress, may mistakenly think that a change in government would restore some normalcy having resigned to the reality. But the fact of the matter is that no Armenian PM, whoever that person is and no Armenian government have an influence on the seismic geo-political change that seems to be in the making in that part of the world. 

Most Armenians do not speak Turkish and hence do not follow Turkish media. But some do. Among them is the eminent man of letter Levon Sharoyan in Aleppo who has been following the many television stations in Turkey. He wrote “These stations invite, for hours on end, university professors, high-ranking former officers, retired diplomats, journalists, analysts, party and public figures, "specialists" on Armenian affairs, etc., etc.,  who respond with an astonishing unanimity and with an effortless consistency echo the official view of the Turkish state that  "Armenia is an occupier country and must return Karabakh to Azerbaijan." There is no deviation from this theme and no dissenting opinion” And among the many outrageous claims that are aired all over Turkey, is also the claim that “ “Zangezur” is Turkish land and that “it is necessary to take quick steps to have it as a land bridge between Nakhichevan and Azerbaijan.”

 Not only Artsakh but also the southern tip of Armenia, the famed Syunik region, or Zankezur is in danger of being annexed to Azerbaijan severing Armenia’s umbilical cord to Iran and completely isolating Armenia.

Turkey has made its intent very clear. Iran has declared lands “belonging” to Azerbaijan will have to be returned to Azerbaijan. Russia has made it known that Artsakh issue is between Armenia and Azerbaijan it is not Russia to resolve it and  that Russia’s commitment is for sovereignty of Armenia. However, even that is not assured. The U.S. of America  (Paul Goble initiative) has long ago entertained the notion of Armenia ceding Zankezur to Azerbaijan in return to Karabagh being incorporated into Armenia. Of course, Karabagh will also be hosting all Azeris who claim to have had property in Karabagh.

The three regional powers, Iran, Turkey and Russia not only have to contend with the Armenian issue, they also have the Syrian spoils to share among themselves. The trio has met more than once to discuss regional issues without inviting the Syrian President Asaad. Devout Muslim Shiite Islam Iran, the devout Muslin Sunni Turkey and the devout Christian Orthodox Russia have set their religious differences aside as they try to figure how best to share the spoils of Syria. Of course, I am not privy of those negations, but I imagine that Karabagh and Zankezur factor in settling things among the three regional powers.

It remains up to us Armenians to rally and support the two commanders in chief, PM Nikol Pachinyan and the President of Artsakh Arayik Harutyunyan for us to prevail and until such time that new challengers come and are elected.

Furthermore, the premature collapse of the PM Pachinyan government has unprecedented consequences on the course Armenia and Armenia and Diaspora relations. PM Pachinyan enjoys the support of the overwhelming majority of the Diaspora Armenian who see no reason to position themselves from a distance  against the democratically elected leader in Armenia. Diaspora now mostly is third and fourth post genocide generation. They are now Americans, Europeans, Latinos of Armenian descent. Violent internal fissures in Armenia will alienate a good segment of the Diaspora, who will see no reason to entertain the political bigotry in Armenia as well, over what they are already facing in their own countries that directly impact their livelihoods. The premature collapse, most likely will also accelarate the depopulation of Armenia.

We are at a no return historic crossroad. May wisdom prevail.