A quote and a Crucial 2024 for Armenia.

Vahe H. Apelian

The quote I referred to in the title is the following: “The reaction of the opposition did not go beyond cursing, attributions, labeling and distortions. Not a single logical proposal was made, not a single alternative plan was presented, not a single valid counter-argument was presented. Two conclusions can be drawn from this. either the opposition does not have any plan, or if it has, but hides it. It is not engaged in constructive national work. I refrain from harsher qualification.”

Before you scroll to read the text of the blog, take a moment and reflect on the quote and make a wild guess, in case the quote does not outright ring a bell for you and you are unable to guess as who could have said it and in what context.

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The quote is from president Levon Ter Petrosyan’s press conference in November 1, 1997. The press conference had to do with Nagorno Karabagh Oblast. The Karabakh conflict had transpired under his watch during his presidency and had come to a halt in favor of the Armenian forces. But that did not mean that the conflict had ended or resolved. The president was elaborating on the need for mutual compromise. He made a note saying that the crux of the matter “is not about giving or not giving Karabakh. It is about keeping Karabakh Armenian. It was inhabited by Armenians for 3000 years and it should be inhabited by Armenians well after another 3000 years.”

President Levon Ter Petrosyan’s press conference came to be known as his “War or Peace, Time to Get Serious” position. Some claim that it was the most consequential position that was articulated during the past three decades.

The position of the LTP did not seat well with the power brokers of Armenia at the time. They forced him to resign and he did resign a few months later on February 3, 1998. After his resignation Robert Kocharian became the president from April 9, 1998 to April 9, 2008; followed by president Serzh Sargsyan from April 9, 2008 to April 9, 2018. Then came about the popular uprising known as the Velvet Revolution and Nikol Pachinyan (NP) was elected the PM on May 8, 2018 in a parliamentary snap election followed by general snap elections during the same year, in December 2018 and in June 2021, post the 2020 disastrous 44-day second Artsakh war from September 27, 2020 to November 9/10, 2020. Artsakh is now depopulated of its native Armenian inhabitants and the NP led Armenian government adopted the ongoing Cross Road for Peace as its strategic initiative which entails Armenia and Azerbaijan recognizing each other territorial sovereignty. 

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A crucial period awaits Armenia. The course NP has set for his government is pretty obvious, but what is not obvious is what alternative the opposition is proposing while it vehemently opposes the government at times with bizarre allegations such as the leading member of the Hayastan Coalition Levon Kocharian, president Robert Kocharian’s son, asking the NP whether he considers himself the PM of Armenia or of Azerbaijan. Not much, rather nothing has changed, as far as opposition mindset is concerned in Armenia, since the president LTP said the above quote during his press conference on November 1, 1997. The government says something and the opposition opposes it, pretty much sums up opposition in Armenia.

But Armenia as a sovereign state is facing a “to be or not to be” situation. 2024 may be its best chance to define its territorial sovereignty and cement its ties with the west.. I say Armenia has the best chance in 2024 for the following reason. Azerbaijan is preparing to host a global conference on climate control. Wikipedia states that “The 2024 UN Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC COP 29) will convene in November 2024 in Baku, Azerbaijan”.  Quoting Wikipedia again: “Armenia agreed on Thursday (December 9, 2023) not to block Azerbaijan's candidacy to host next year's COP29 U.N. climate conference as part of a series of mutual goodwill gestures intended to promote reconciliation between the estranged South Caucasus neighbours.” Azerbaijan will be at its best behavior in 2024 and will do its upmost to make sure that there is no confect in south Caucasus to have the conference it values highly, to take place in Baku. 

 Consequently, a crucial 2024 awaits Armenia. Come 2025, the five-year mandate of the Russian “Peace” keeping forces in Azerbaijan will end. There is no assurance that the Russian forces along with its newly bonded strategic ally Azerbaijan "peace" keeping forces in south Caucasus, will not move to Armenia and station in the Syunik region, especially if Armenia by the end of 2024 has not come with an internationally accepted border and established firm times with the West.