Let us be mindful what was said three decades ago - “ it is not about giving or not giving Karabakh. It is about keeping Karabakh Armenian. It was inhabited by Armenians for 3000 years and it should be inhabited by Armenians well after another 3000 years.” – and what transpired in 2020.
The quote is from a paper president Levon Ter Petrosyan’s (LTP) published in November 1, 1997. The paper had to do with Nagorno Karabagh Oblast. The Karabakh conflict took place under his watch and came to a halt in favor of the Armenian forces. But that did not mean that the conflict had ended or resolved. President LTP elaborated on the need for mutual compromise. Some claim that it was the most consequential policy paper during the past three decades.
The position of the LTP did not seat well with the power brokers of Armenia at the time.. It is futile to elaborate now to anyone who has not followed the ensuing developments as to what transpired after president LTP's conference. Suffice is the following: historic Artsakh is depopulated of its native Armenians for the very first time in its ancient history
A crucial 2024 awaits Armenia.
Armenia as a sovereign state is facing a “to be or not to be” situation. A new strategic alignment has come about in the Caucasus, the Russo-Azeri alliance. Both of these countries are not members of NATO. Their partnership goes way back. Russia was one of the main suppliers of military hardware to Azerbaijan even though Armenia and Russia were members of CST0, while Azerbaijan was and is not. Their partnership has given rise to their strategic alliance and has sidelined Turkey. Pre 44 days second Artsakh war Turkey and Azerbaijan military alliance in the Caucasus has tacitly splintered and given rise to the Azerbaijan and Russia alliance in the Caucasus that is intent on shaping the south Caucasus in its image. Turkey has no interest in having such a military strong alliance on its border. Let us be mindful that in 1918, Turkey was the first to recognize the fledgling newly formed Republic of Armenia as a buffer state between it and emerging communist Russia.
Of course, the Armenian government has been keenly aware of the development and far more than the rest of us the public that perceives but naturally is deprived of state level communications among concerned counties.. The state of Armenia is at a cross road. This year, 2024 may be its best chance to define its territorial sovereignty and cement its ties with the west.
I say Armenia has the best chance in 2024 for the following reason. Azerbaijan is preparing to host a global conference on climate control. Wikipedia states that “The 2024 UN Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC COP 29) will convene in November 2024 in Baku, Azerbaijan”. Quoting Wikipedia again: “Armenia agreed on Thursday (December 9, 2023) not to block Azerbaijan's candidacy to host next year's COP29 U.N. climate conference as part of a series of mutual goodwill gestures intended to promote reconciliation between the estranged South Caucasus neighbours.” Azerbaijan will be at its best behavior in 2024 and will do its upmost to make sure that there is no confect in south Caucasus to have the conference it values highly, to take place in Baku.
Consequently, a crucial 2024 awaits Armenia.
Come 2025, the five-year mandate of the Russian “Peace” keeping forces in Azerbaijan will end. There is no assurance whatsoever that at the end of their term, the Russian “peace” keeping forces will not move to south Armenia Syunik region and bring along its newly bonded strategic ally Azerbaijan in south Caucasus. Hopefully Armenia establishes firm ties with the West by the end of 2024, otherwise not only a corridor but the whole “Western Azerbaijan” may be open for this new alliance.
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