Western movies or the cowboy and Indian moves of our youth - 1/3

 Once upon a time, the Western dominated the silver screen. Dating all the way back to the 1940s and 50s, the genre proved to be one of the first true box office hits, transforming Hollywood from a small-time fad into a bonafide industry. In fact, many studios today owe their wealth and success to those Western hits of yesteryear.

Westerns have gone in and out of popularity. They were all the rage during the Silent Film Era, but their popularity dipped in the late 1930s. It went back up again as one of the most-watched movie genres of the 50s, 60s, and 70s. Westerns speak to a bygone era, but the history in each Western makes them valuable. From Disney to Warner Brothers and MGM, studios cemented their box office revenues with dependable flicks (and movie stars). Without these classic Westerns, it’s unlikely the entertainment industry would be as profitable as it is today. (Investing.com)

 

1. The Wild Bunch

Year: 1969

Starring: William Holden, Ernest Borgnine, Robert Ryan

Est. Production Cost: $6 million*

 

2. The Searchers

Year: 1956

Starring: John Wayne, Jeffrey Hunter, Vera Miles, Natalie Wood

Est. Production Cost: $3.75 million**

 

3. Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid

Year: 1969

Starring: Robert Redford, Paul Newman, Katharine Ross, Strother Martin

Est. Production Cost: $6 million*

 

4. Stagecoach

Year: 1939

Starring: Claire Trevor

Est. Production Cost: $531,000*

 

5. Rio Bravo

Year: 1959

Starring: John Wayne, Dean Martin, Ricky Nelson, Angie Dickinson

Est. Production Cost: $1.25 million

 

6. High Noon

Year: 1952

Starring: Gary Cooper, Thomas Mitchell, Lloyd Bridges, Grace Kelly

Est. Production Cost: $750,000

 

7. McCabe and Mrs. Miller

Year: 1971

Starring: Warren Beatty, Julie Christie, Rene Auberjonois

Est. Production Cost: $1 million

 

8. Unforgiven

Year: 1992

Starring: Clint Eastwood, Gene Hackman, Richard Harris, Morgan Freeman, Frances Fisher

Est. Production Cost: $14.4 million

 

9. How the West Was Won

Year: 1962

Starring: Caroll Baker, Walter Brennan, Lee J. Cobb, Andy Devine, Henry Fonda

Est. Production Cost: $15 million*

 

10. The Big Country

Year: 1958

Starring: Gregory Peck, Jean Simmons, Charlton Heston, Carroll Baker

Est. Production Cost: $650,000

 

11. The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance

Year: 1962

Starring: John Wayne, James Stewart, Vera Miles, Lee Marvin, Edmond O’Brien

Est. Production Cost: $3.2 million

 

12. Fort Apache

Year: 1948

Starring: John Wayne, Henry Fonda

Est. Production Cost: $2.1 million

 

13. Blazing Saddles

Year: 1974

Starring: Cleavon Little, Gene Wilder, Slim Pickens

Est. Production Cost: $2.6 million*

 

14. The Magnificent Seven

Year: 1960

Starring: Yul Brynner, Eli Wallach, Steve McQueen, Charles Bronson

Est. Production Cost: $2 million

 

15. McClintock!

Year: 1963

Starring: John Wayne, Maureen O’Hara

Est. Production Cost: $4 million

 

16. The Outlaw

Year: 1943

Starring: Jack Buetel, Jane Russell, Walter Huston, Thomas Mitchell

Est. Production Cost: $3.4 million

 

17. Tombstone

Year: 1993

Starring: Val Kilmer, Kurt Russell, Sam Elliott, Bill Paxton, Michael Biehn

Est. Production Cost: $25 million

 

18. The Great Train Robbery

Year: 1903

Starring: Alfred Abadie, Broncho Billy Anderson, Justus D. Barnes

Est. Production Cost: $150

 

19. 3:10 to Yuma

Year: 1957

Starring: Van Heflin, Glenn Ford, Felicia Farr

Est. Production Cost: $100,000

 

20. Dances With Wolves

Year: 1990

Starring: Kevin Costner, Mary McDowell, Graham Greene

Est. Production Cost: $19 million*

 

21. The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Year: 1966

Starring: Clint Eastwood, Lee Van Cleef, Eli Wallach

Est. Production Cost: $1.2 million

 

22. Once Upon a Time in the West

Year: 1968

Starring: Claudia Cardinale, Henry Fonda, Jason Robards, Charles Bronson, Gabriele Ferzetti

Est. Production Cost: $5 million

 

23. True Grit

Year: 1969

Starring: John Wayne, Kim Darby, Glen Campbell, Robert Duvall

Est. Production Cost: $900,000*

 

24. Shane

Year: 1953

Starring: Alan Ladd, Jean Arthur, Van Heflin, Brandon deWilde

Est. Production Cost: $3 million*\

 

25. Red River

Year: 1948

Starring: John Wayne, Montgomery Clift, Joanne Dru, Walter Brennan, John Ireland

Est. Production Cost: $2.7 million

 

26. Johnny Guitar

Year: 1954

Starring: Joan Crawford, Sterling Hayden, Mercedes McCambridge, Scott Brady

Est. Production Cost: $500,000

 

27. The Shootist

Year: 1976

Starring: John Wayne, Lauren Bacall, Ron Howard, James Stewart

Est. Production Cost: $1 million

 

28. She Wore a Yellow Ribbon

Year: 1949

Starring: John Wayne, Joanne Dru, John Agar

Est. Production Cost: $1.6 million*

 

29. Ride the High Country

Year: 1962

Starring: Randolph Scott, Mariette Hartley, Joel McCrea, James Drury, Warren Oates

Est. Production Cost: $813,000

 

30. The Treasure of the Sierra Madre

Year: 1948

Starring: Humphrey Bogart, Walter Huston, John Huston, Tim Holt, Bruce Bennett

Est. Production Cost: $3.8 million

31. Rio Bravo

Year: 1959

Starring: John Wayne, Ricky Nelson, Dean Martin, Angie Dickinson, Walter Brennan

Est. Production Cost: $1.215 million

 

32. Rio Grande

Year: 1950

Starring: John Wayne, Maureen O’Hara, Claude Jarman Jr., Victor McLaglen, Ben Johnson

Est. Production Cost: $1.215 million

 

33. True Grit (2010)

Year: 2010

Starring: Jeff Bridges, Hailee Steinfeld, Matt Damon, Josh Brolin, Barry Pepper

Est. Production Cost: $38 million

 

33. True Grit (2010)

Year: 2010

Starring: Jeff Bridges, Hailee Steinfeld, Matt Damon, Josh Brolin, Barry Pepper

Est. Production Cost: $38 million

 

35. Deadwood: The Movie

Year: 2019

Starring: Timothy Olyphant, Ian McShane, Molly Parker, Robin Weigert, John Hawkes

Est. Production Cost: $20.7 million

 

36. Giant

Year: 1956

Starring: James Dean, Rock Hudson, Elizabeth Taylor, Dennis Hopper, Carroll Baker

Est. Production Cost: $5.4 million

 

37. Vera Cruz

Year: 1954

Starring: Burt Lancaster, Gary Cooper, Sara Montiel, Denise Darcel, Cesar Romero

Est. Production Cost: $3 million

 

38. The Outlaw Josey Wales

Year: 1976

Starring: Clint Eastwood, Sondra Locke, Chief Dan George, John Vernon, Sam Bottoms

Est. Production Cost: $3.7 million

 

39. My Darling Clementine

Year: 1946

Starring: Victor Mature, Henry Fonda, Linda Darnell, Cathy Downs, Walter Brennan

Est. Production Cost: $2 million

 

40. Near Dark

Year: 1987

Starring: Bill Paxton, Adrian Pasdar, Lance Henriksen, Jenny Wright, Jenette Goldstein

Est. Production Cost: $5 million*

 

 

 

115. Gunsmoke

Year: 1955 – 75

Starring: James Arness, Milburn Stone, Amanda Blake, Dennis Weaver, Burt Reynolds

Est. Production Cost: $3 million

 

 

 

Along Kristapor Mikaelian’s thoughts. - Mob Mentality

Vahe H Apelian

 

Kristapor Mikaelian’s book often quoted is titled “The Thoughts of a Revolutionary” (3եղափոխականի մտքերը)։ The book was published after his death in 1905 and is a a collection of a few of his writing that appeared in the Armenian Revolutionary Federation organ “Troshag” (Դրօշակ – Flag). It appears in their day these writings of Kriսtapor Mikaelian were titled: “Mob Logic” (Ամբոխային Տրամաբանութիւն), “Historic Evil” (Պատմական Չարիք), *Unity with the Turks” (Միւթիւն Թուրքերի Հետ), «Armenian Kurdish Relations” (Հայ-Քրտական Յարաբերութիւններ), and “Caucasian Armenian Crisis” (Կովկասահայ Տագնապ).

After his death, his friends selected those from his  writings into a book titling it “The Thoughts of a Revolutionary” (3եղափոխականի միտքերը) and had it published in 1906. Over the next few decades the book appeared to have been all sold out. The book was reprinted in 1931. The publisher of the second publication stated the following in the first paragraph of the preface: “In the Armenian revolution literature, Christopher Mikayelian's articles occupy a special place. There is very little written in Armenian - maybe Raffi's novels, etc. - that made such a strong impression on the minds of the youth as "The Logic of the Mob."  (Pierre Quillard, July 14, 1864 — February 4, 1912).

Recently, in fact a few months ago, «The Thoughts of a Revolutionary» was published for the third time in a sequel  along with five other books by Hamazkayin Vahe Setian Publishing in Beirut, celebrating ARF Zavarian Student Association's 120th anniversary. This third printing was dedicated in the memories of Serj Tovmassian and Sarkis Foujourian. They were members of the ARF Zavarian Student association but were martyred in 1976 during the Lebanese Civil war safeguarding the security of the Armenian neighberhoods.

I had a copy of the second printing during my students days in Beirut but I did not have a recollection of having read the book in its entirity. Recently I came across postings on the Armenian social media that claimed are from Kristapor Mikaelian's book. I had no remembrance of the quotes.  Apparently they were not etched in my memory. I, also, am not particulary drawn to a line or two, or three lines long postings because I believe that things should be viewed in context. Furthermore,  I will have to say that I am under the impression that  Armenian illiteracy is growing leaps and bounds by the day. Thus I was not even sure that those who posted the quotes had actually read the book. I recalled what the editor of the Zavarian Students Association sequel, Garo Hovanessian, said during the presentation of the books,  that while editing the six volumes, he remained wondering whether these books will be read and challenged each to read an hour a day.  Consequently, I decided to read the newly published book. It is a 140 pages long book, not long at all. 

Below you will find my posting which constitutes the first and the second paragraph of Kristapoe Mikaelian's most referenced treatise, «Mob Logic». I quoted because I think that the mob logic or mob mentality has grown and is way more impactful nowadays than in Krikapor Mikaelian's days. Obsiously it is the technology that has made it more immpactful. I leave it to the reader to make his or her assessment whether it is  the same mentality that prevailed among us as Armenian in 1880's / 1890's when the Armenian revolutionary fervor took place and the most recent recent popular uprising, known as the Velvet Revolution, the citizens of Armenia brought about between April  and May 8, 2018.

Kristapor Mikaelian's quote.

* The mob, whether it is made up of "educated" or uneducated people, is always inclined to think that every phenomenon, which is followed by another, is the immediate cause of the subsequent phenomenon.

"That is the mob attitude and only with that logic can be explained the absurd opinion spread in some parts of the Armenian society that the Armenian revolutionaries are the real reason for the massacres of the Armenians. "Post hoc, ergo propter hoc" (after this event, therefore because of this event) reasoned the chapeau-wearing crowd and accepted the Jesuit accusation that came out of the  Herodes Turk court. Isn't it true that before the Armenian massacres, nothing new had happened, - neither the eclipse of the sun, nor the rise of a comet, - nothing but revolutionary demonstrations?. So what is the doubt that those demonstrations were the cause of our downfalls. May those demonstrations be cursed. May the revolutionaries perish, - human stupidity or heartlessness speaks, - and here you have in front of you a phenomenon that is as detestable as it is harmful.» (see the original quote below)

The Western Armenia loss came about after the 1890's revolutionary movment.  The loss and the depopulation of Artsakh came after the 2018 Velvet Revolution. The mob logic or mob mentality attributes the losses to the event that preceded each - "post hoc, ergo propter hoc"; instead of  being introspective, doing an impassionate analysis, assuming one's share of responsibility.  The mob mentality has its easy way out, "post hoc, ergo propter hoc". 

No,  whatever transpired in our history is because of us and not a preceding event and surely not in our stars..

 Բնագիրը ՝ 

Ամբոխը կազմուած լինի նա «կրթուած» թէ անկիրթ մարդկայնից, միշտ տրամադիր է կարծելու, թէ ամէն մի երեւոյթ, որին հետեւում է մի ուրիշը`անմիջական պատճառ է յետագայ երեւոյթին։

«Այդ է անբոխի տրամադրութիւնը եւ միայն այդ տրամաբանութեամբ կարելի է բացատրել հայոց հասարակութեան որոշ շրջաններուն տարածուած այն անհեթեթ կարծիքը, թէ հայ յեղափոխականներն հայկական սասկալի ի կոտորածներոն իսկական պատճառը։ “Post hoc, ergo proper hoc” (Այս դէպքից յտեոտյ, ուրեմն այս դէպքի պատճառով) տրամաբանեց chapeau կրող ամբոխը եւ հալած եւղի տեղ ընդունեց Թուրք Հերովդէսի պալատից դուրս եկած ճեզուիթական մեղադրանքը։ ՉԷ՞ որ հայկական կոտորածներից առաջ՚ ոչ մէկ նորանշան բան տեղի չէր ունեցէր, - ոչ արեւի խաւարում, ոչ գիսաւոր աստղի ծագում, - ոչինչ`բացի յեղափոխական ցոյցերից ։ Ի՞նչ կասկած ուրեմն, որ այդ ցոյցերը եղան մեր կորուասների պատճառը  թող անիծեալ լինին այդ ցոյցերը, թող կորչին յեղափոխականները , - խօսում է մարդկային յիմարութիւնը կամ անսրտութիւնը, -.եւ ահա ձեր առաջ ներկայանում է մի երեւոյթ, որ նոյնքան գարշելի է որքան վնասակար։»

 

Հայ յեղափոխութեան գրականութեան մէջ Քրիստափոր Միքայելեանի յօդուածնրեը առանձին տեղ են գրաւում։ Հայերէն շատ քիչ գրուած կայ – գուցէ Ռաֆֆիի վէպերը եւ այլն – որ այնքան զօրաւոր տպաւորութիւն գործած լինին ժամանակակից երիտասարդութեան մըտքին վրայ որքան «Ամբոխային Տրամաբանութիւնը։» (Պիեռ Քիյառ

 

I grafted a pine tree

 Vahe H Apelian

 

The spring cold spell a few days ago wreaked havoc, not only tree branches but trees were splinted including a grown-up pine tree in our backyard. It was broken literally in half, leaving behind the protruding pine tree trunk.

There are several Massachusetts native pine trees. I do not know which kind is ours. And as far as tree grafting is concerned, it entails the following: “Grafting or graftage[1] is a horticultural technique whereby tissues of plants are joined so as to continue their growth together. The upper part of the combined plant is called the scion (/ˈsaɪən/) while the lower part is called the rootstock.” (Wikipedia).

My paternal uncle was an expert tree pruner and grafter. I had seen him graft apple trees in his orchard. I did not think much of tree grafting. But my impression was totally changed when during my college years at the American University of Beirut, I happened to come across a dissertation about tree grafting. I do not remember what level dissertation it was. But my curiosity was raised about tree pruning and grafting and I said to myself that my uncle deserves a PhD in the art and science of pruning and grafting trees.

With my paternal uncle in his apple orchard

My maternal uncle in Los Angeles, grafted a tree he had in their backyard. I do not remember what kind of tree it was. But his grafting took hold and the tree ended up bearing two kinds or two varieties of the fruit it bore.

In order to salvage what was left behind the broken pine tree, I resorted to grafting its crown, the very top section of a pine tree, onto the trunk. In order to that I sawed the trunk to working height. Subsequently I split the trunk and then inserted the crown into the split after removing the skin and shaping the foot of the crown. Subsequently I wrapped the tree at the grafted end.

The attached pictures may shed more light on my grafting the pine tree. 

The broken pine tree

The trunk left behind

The trunk cut to workable height

The trunk split and the crown of the tree prepared for grafting

The grafting process: inserting the crown onto the trunk

The grafting process: inserting the crown onto the trunk

The tree wrapped at the graft

The wrap dressed with a plastic cover. 

A crucial 2024 awaits Armenia. - 1/2 -

 

Let us be mindful what was said three decades ago - “ it is not about giving or not giving Karabakh. It is about keeping Karabakh Armenian. It was inhabited by Armenians for 3000 years and it should be inhabited by Armenians well after another 3000 years.” – and what transpired in 2020.

The quote is from a paper  president Levon Ter Petrosyan’s (LTP) published in November 1, 1997. The paper had to do with Nagorno Karabagh Oblast. The Karabakh conflict took place under his watch and came to a halt in favor of the Armenian forces. But that did not mean that the conflict had ended or resolved. President  LTP elaborated on the need for mutual compromise. Some claim that it was the most consequential policy paper during the past three decades.

The position of the LTP did not seat well with the power brokers of Armenia at the time.. It is futile to elaborate now to anyone who has not followed the ensuing developments as to what transpired after president LTP's conference. Suffice is the following: historic Artsakh is depopulated of its native Armenians for the very first time in its ancient history

A crucial 2024 awaits Armenia. 

Armenia as a sovereign state is facing a “to be or not to be” situation. A new strategic alignment has come about in the Caucasus, the Russo-Azeri alliance. Both of these countries are not members of NATO. Their partnership goes way back. Russia was one of the main suppliers of military hardware to Azerbaijan even though Armenia and Russia were members of CST0, while Azerbaijan was and is not. Their partnership has given rise to their strategic alliance and has sidelined Turkey. Pre 44 days second Artsakh war Turkey and Azerbaijan military alliance in the Caucasus has tacitly splintered and given rise to the Azerbaijan and Russia alliance in the Caucasus that is intent on shaping the south Caucasus in its image. Turkey has no interest in having such a military strong alliance on its border. Let us be mindful that in 1918, Turkey was the first to recognize the fledgling newly formed Republic of Armenia as a buffer state between it and emerging communist Russia.

Of course, the Armenian government has been keenly aware of the development and far more than the rest of us the public that perceives but naturally is deprived of state level communications among concerned counties.. The state of Armenia is at a cross road. This year, 2024 may be its best chance to define its territorial sovereignty and cement its ties with the west. 

I say Armenia has the best chance in 2024 for the following reason. Azerbaijan is preparing to host a global conference on climate control. Wikipedia states that “The 2024 UN Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC COP 29) will convene in November 2024 in Baku, Azerbaijan”.  Quoting Wikipedia again: “Armenia agreed on Thursday (December 9, 2023) not to block Azerbaijan's candidacy to host next year's COP29 U.N. climate conference as part of a series of mutual goodwill gestures intended to promote reconciliation between the estranged South Caucasus neighbours.” Azerbaijan will be at its best behavior in 2024 and will do its upmost to make sure that there is no confect in south Caucasus to have the conference it values highly, to take place in Baku. 

Consequently, a crucial 2024 awaits Armenia. 

Come 2025, the five-year mandate of the Russian “Peace” keeping forces in Azerbaijan will end. There is no assurance whatsoever that at the end of their term, the Russian “peace” keeping forces will not move to south Armenia Syunik region and bring along its newly bonded strategic ally Azerbaijan in south Caucasus. Hopefully Armenia establishes firm ties with the West by the end of 2024, otherwise not only a corridor but the whole “Western Azerbaijan” may  be open for this new alliance.

 

Ապրի՞լ, թէ՝ մեռնիլ - Western Armenian faces extinction:

Western Armenian is mostly a diasporic language and one that is not an official language of any state, Western Armenian faces extinction as its native speakers lose fluency in Western Armenian amid pressures to assimilate into their host countries. (Wikipedia)

Ապրի՞լ, թէ՝ մեռնիլ

Այս տողերը, որ կը գրեմ տեսանելի սեւ թանաքով,

Օր մը պիտի անհետանան կեանքի անողոք հանաքով.

Այդ է հիմա սեւ վճիռը արձակուած՝ ՄԱԿ-ԵՈՒՆԵՍՔՕ-էն՝

«Արեւմտահայերէնը հուսկ պիտի ջնջուի մօտ օրէն»։

Ուրեմն ալ ինչո՞ւ գրել մահուան սահմանուած այս լեզուով,

Ինչո՞ւ ձօնել մեր սուղ ժամերն այս հին լեզուին հիւծախտաւոր,

Երբ վաղը ալ չի գտնուիր ո´չ զինք խօսող ո´չ կարդացող...

Ի՞նչ հոգ, որ դեռ դար մը առաջ հիւծախտաւոր քերթող մը մեծ (1)

Իր բառերովը մեծասքանչ՝ ցաւը պատմեց ապշած լիճին,

Որո՞ւ հոգը, թէ մէկ ուրիշ թոքախտաւոր պարման քերթող (2)

Անանձնական ուրախութիւն հայցեց այս մահամերձ լեզուով,

Որպէսզի ինք զայն լաստ ըրած՝ նաւորդն ըլլայ վառ լոյսերու,

Եւ նահատակ բանաստեղծ մ҆ալ անոր լուսախոբ բառերով

Ադամանդէ ու յակինթէ արգասաւոր արշալոյսները արօրեց,

Տիտան մըն ալ վարդահեղեղ արշալոյսներ կանխատեսեց, (3)

Դեռ՝ մերօրեայ, լուսածին մեծ բանաստեղծ մը իր լուսագիր

Գիրքն սկսէր՝ լոյս բառերով՝ «Հեղեղ մը լոյս ծնանիմ։»

Այս լոյս լեզուն, որ դարէ դար խաւարումը արհամարհեց,

Արդեօ՞ք պիտի արհամարհէ ՄԱԿ-ԵՈՒՆԵՍՔՕ-ի վճիռն ալ,

Եւ բառերով իր բարբարոս շարունակէ լուսաստեղծել (4)

Հեզաճկուն բառապարեր տակաւին անհամար դարեր,

Թէ՞ այլեւս մեծասքանչէն չսքանչացող հայուն ի տես՝ (5)

Սիրտէն խոցուած՝ կուչ պիտի գայ ինքն իր վրայ եւ ծուարի

Լուսահաւաք պատմագրութեան մէկ էջին մէջ, որ ճրագէ

Իր մահովն իսկ գիտաշխարհը հնահաւաք լեզուաբանին...

Արա Մխսեան   Ara Mekhsian

****

1.

«Ինչո՞ւ ապշած ես, լըճակ,

Ու չեն խայտար քու ալեակք...»

Պետրոս Դուրեան

 

2.

«Տո՜ւր ինծի, Տէ՜ր, ուրախութիւնն անանձնական.

Զայն ընդգրկած՝ իտէալի՜ն ըլլամ որսկան.

Զայն լաստ ըրած ես Լոյսերու նաւո՜րդն ըլլամ:»

Միսաք Մեծարենց

 

3.

«Ոհ, այն ատեն, այս օրուան

Մեր մեռելները բոլոր

Միահամուռ ոստումով

Պիտի կանգնին գերեզմանին մէջ իրենց,

Ու անհամբեր հեռո՜ւն, հեռո՜ւն ակնապիշ

Պիտի սպասեն վարդահեղեղ գալուստին

Արշալոյսի մ՛Արշալոյսի մը` որուն

(Հաւատացէք ինձ Մայրեր),

Ես ոտնաձայնը կ՛առնեմ…»

Դամիէլ Վարուժան

 

4.

«Մեր լեզուն ճկուն է ու բարբարոս,

Առնական է, կոպիտ, բայց միեւնոյն պահին

Պայծառ է նա, որպէս մշտաբորբոք փարոս,

Վառուած հրով անշէջ դարերում հին։-»

Եղիշէ Չարենց

 

5.

«Ո՛վ մեծասքանչ դու լեզու,

Ո´վ հեշտ բարբառ մայրական,

Քաղցրահնչիւն բառերուդ

Նման արդեօք այլ տեղ կա՞ն...»

Ն. Մեզապուրեան

A quote and a Crucial 2024 for Armenia.

Vahe H. Apelian

The quote I referred to in the title is the following: “The reaction of the opposition did not go beyond cursing, attributions, labeling and distortions. Not a single logical proposal was made, not a single alternative plan was presented, not a single valid counter-argument was presented. Two conclusions can be drawn from this. either the opposition does not have any plan, or if it has, but hides it. It is not engaged in constructive national work. I refrain from harsher qualification.”

Before you scroll to read the text of the blog, take a moment and reflect on the quote and make a wild guess, in case the quote does not outright ring a bell for you and you are unable to guess as who could have said it and in what context.

***

The quote is from president Levon Ter Petrosyan’s press conference in November 1, 1997. The press conference had to do with Nagorno Karabagh Oblast. The Karabakh conflict had transpired under his watch during his presidency and had come to a halt in favor of the Armenian forces. But that did not mean that the conflict had ended or resolved. The president was elaborating on the need for mutual compromise. He made a note saying that the crux of the matter “is not about giving or not giving Karabakh. It is about keeping Karabakh Armenian. It was inhabited by Armenians for 3000 years and it should be inhabited by Armenians well after another 3000 years.”

President Levon Ter Petrosyan’s press conference came to be known as his “War or Peace, Time to Get Serious” position. Some claim that it was the most consequential position that was articulated during the past three decades.

The position of the LTP did not seat well with the power brokers of Armenia at the time. They forced him to resign and he did resign a few months later on February 3, 1998. After his resignation Robert Kocharian became the president from April 9, 1998 to April 9, 2008; followed by president Serzh Sargsyan from April 9, 2008 to April 9, 2018. Then came about the popular uprising known as the Velvet Revolution and Nikol Pachinyan (NP) was elected the PM on May 8, 2018 in a parliamentary snap election followed by general snap elections during the same year, in December 2018 and in June 2021, post the 2020 disastrous 44-day second Artsakh war from September 27, 2020 to November 9/10, 2020. Artsakh is now depopulated of its native Armenian inhabitants and the NP led Armenian government adopted the ongoing Cross Road for Peace as its strategic initiative which entails Armenia and Azerbaijan recognizing each other territorial sovereignty. 

***

A crucial period awaits Armenia. The course NP has set for his government is pretty obvious, but what is not obvious is what alternative the opposition is proposing while it vehemently opposes the government at times with bizarre allegations such as the leading member of the Hayastan Coalition Levon Kocharian, president Robert Kocharian’s son, asking the NP whether he considers himself the PM of Armenia or of Azerbaijan. Not much, rather nothing has changed, as far as opposition mindset is concerned in Armenia, since the president LTP said the above quote during his press conference on November 1, 1997. The government says something and the opposition opposes it, pretty much sums up opposition in Armenia.

But Armenia as a sovereign state is facing a “to be or not to be” situation. 2024 may be its best chance to define its territorial sovereignty and cement its ties with the west.. I say Armenia has the best chance in 2024 for the following reason. Azerbaijan is preparing to host a global conference on climate control. Wikipedia states that “The 2024 UN Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC COP 29) will convene in November 2024 in Baku, Azerbaijan”.  Quoting Wikipedia again: “Armenia agreed on Thursday (December 9, 2023) not to block Azerbaijan's candidacy to host next year's COP29 U.N. climate conference as part of a series of mutual goodwill gestures intended to promote reconciliation between the estranged South Caucasus neighbours.” Azerbaijan will be at its best behavior in 2024 and will do its upmost to make sure that there is no confect in south Caucasus to have the conference it values highly, to take place in Baku. 

 Consequently, a crucial 2024 awaits Armenia. Come 2025, the five-year mandate of the Russian “Peace” keeping forces in Azerbaijan will end. There is no assurance that the Russian forces along with its newly bonded strategic ally Azerbaijan "peace" keeping forces in south Caucasus, will not move to Armenia and station in the Syunik region, especially if Armenia by the end of 2024 has not come with an internationally accepted border and established firm times with the West.