A document for history: “War or peace, time to get serious" - "Պատերազմ թէ՞ խաղաղութիւն՝ լրջանալու պահը" - Introduction

 Vahe H Apelian - Vաhe Յ  Աpeliաn

“War or Peace, Time to get Serious” is president Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s (LTP) position paper for the resolution of the Karabagh conflict, he published on November 1, 1997, where he advocated concessions for resolving the lingering Karabagh conflict. 

LTP’s negotiating position outlined in that document created an uproar in Armenia and resulted in the palace coup engineered by Robert Kocharian, Serzh Sargsyan, Vazken Sarkissian and Vartan Oskanian leading to president LTP’s resignation a few months later, on February 3, 1998. 

In a recent posting on his Facebook page, Tatul Hagopian labelled that palace coup a political crime and wrote, “in 1997-1998, a political crime was committed in Armenia, as a result of which the historical opportunity to settle the Artsakh conflict was aborted.” (see note). From there on “Serzh Sargsyan, like Kocharyan before him, each for ten years and Pashinyan for two years, failed to act decisively. Consecutively they missed the opportunities to settle the Artsakh conflict.” (see note). 

The rest is another tragic page of the much tortured Armenian history, the loss of Artsakh. Historians will study this catastrophic loss from here and on and certainly will refer to the LTP’s historic political stand where he noted that, “Rejection of compromise and maximalism (striving to achieve the maximum and not the possible) is the shortest way to the complete destruction of Karabakh and deterioration of the situation in Armenia. It is not about giving or not giving Karabakh. It is about keeping Karabakh Armenian. It was inhabited by Armenians for 3000 years and it should be inhabited by Armenians after 3000 years.” 

The Azeri military incursion on April 1, 2016, seemed to have changed the mind of Serzh Sargsyan, the last architect of 1997 palace coup against LTP, the Velvet Revolution would unseat from power. He seemed to have realized the merit of the LTP’s position. Tatul Hagopyan quoting  Arthur Tovmasyan (Armenian: Արթուր Թովմասյան), who was the President of the National Assembly of the Republic of Artsakh from 21 May 2020 to 7 August 2023, noted the following. In  an interview Artur Tovmasyan had at the end of 2020, he has said the following: “After the April 2016 war, President Serzh Sargsyan and President Bako Sahakyan met with 22 deputies. Serzh Sargsyan urged us to agree to the surrender of seven regions. We said that the Madrid principles do not express the fundamental interests of the Armenian people. He also said that you have heard the song "Kars, Kars" many times, if you refuse the principles of Madrid, then one day you will hear the song "Stepanakert, Stepanakert", Serzh Sargsyan said it bluntly. I remembered those words of Serzh Sargsyan on November 9, when Stepanakert was empty and deserted, and the enemy was several kilometers away from the city."

Unfortunately, Serzh Sargsyan, much like Robert Kocharian before him did not have the political will and did not act responsibly as statesmen to bring the Artsakh conflict to a settlement. Historic Artsakh is depopulated of its native Armenian inhabitants. By 2020, Turkey and its allies had trained and equipped the  Azerbaijan army. The bar had been raised for the resolving the Karabagh issue and the bar was war. 

However, history will not exonerate president LTP from responsibility for the loss of the Mountainous Nagorno Karabagh Oblast and the depopulation of historic Artsakh from its native Armenian inhabitants. LTP was, after all, the leader of the Karabagh Committee that sounded the battle cry for unification. Instead of pursuing a negotiated settlement for the Mountainous Nagorno Karabakh, LTP let the first Karabagh war be waged under his watch, instead of resorting to negotiated settlement. The first Artsakh war ended with a ceasefire agreement (the Bishkek Protocol) between the warring parties that came into effect on 12 May 1994. The Bishkek Protocol was a ceasefire agreement, signed by the representatives of Armenia, Azerbaijan, the Republic of Mountainous Karabakh, and Russia on May 5, 1994, in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan.

LTP’s “War or Peace, Time to get Serious” position paper came about, as stated, on November 1, 1997, three years after the halting of the hostilities and after many violations along the border. 

The palace coup engineered by the political quartet failed to resolve the Karabagh Conflict. 

I could not find that historic document translated into English in the internet. Consequently, I resorted to translating it and will post it in segments.  

Part 1 – The only option for solving the Karabakh question is compromise,'

http://vhapelian.blogspot.com/2024/10/war-or-peace-time-to-get-serious_23.html

Part 2 - The path of adventurers will lead to inevitable defeat

http://vhapelian.blogspot.com/2024/10/war-or-peace-time-to-get-serious_29.html

Part 3 - Five myths and  two riddles

http://vhapelian.blogspot.com/2024/11/war-or-peace-time-to-get-serious.html

Part 4/4 - Our only ally is the refusal of adventure

http://vhapelian.blogspot.com/2024/11/war-or-peace-time-to-get-serious_12.html

1

The historic blunder of undermining LTP’s Karabagh settlement policy.

Vahe H Apelian

Levon Ter Petrosyan prominence came about with the Karabagh liberation movement he led. Subsequently he became the first nationally elected president, in the long tortuous Armenian history, on November 11, 1991, just fifty days after Armenia declared its independence on September 21, 1991 and long before the newly independent Republic of Armenia, voted to approve its  constitution on June 5, 1995. 

The Karabakh liberation war raged under the watch of Levon Ter Petrosyan and culminated in the Bishkek Protocol on May 5, 1995 which was a provisional ceasefire, with no final peace agreement. 

Two and half years - 2 years, 5 months, 28 days –after the Bishkek agreement, president Levon Ter Petrosyan published his “War or Peace, Time to get Serious” position paper for the resolution of the Karabagh conflict on November 1, 1997, where he advocated concessions for resolving the lingering Karabagh conflict. 

The position LTP outlined in that document created an uproar in Armenia and resulted in the palace coup engineered by Robert Kocharian, Serzh Sargsyan, Vazken Sarkissian and Vartan Oskanian leading to president LTP’s resignation a few months later, on February 3, 1998, and paving the way for two terms presidency of Robert Kocharian, followed by two terms Serzh Sargsyan presidency. Both failed to settle the Karabagh conflict. They also did not recognize the Republic of Karabagh, nor annexed it onto Armenia. On may 8, 2018 Nikol Pashinyan, after a popular uprising, was voted the PM of Armenia in a snap parliamentary election. The rest is history.

The PM Nikol Pashinyan has asked the presidents to a public debate. I do not think presidents Robert Kocharian and Serzh Sargsyan will accept it. They lead the opposition. I am wondering if LTP will accept. But he had already presented his position on the matter and his political stand to resolve the Karabagh issue. But, as noted, the two power brokers who became the presidents, undermined his Karabakh issue settlement  policy and forced him to resign.

It is important that interested Armenians read LTP’s “War or Peace, Time to get Serious”. I have translated it in four segments and posted below. 

In his position paper “War or Peace, Time to get Serious”, LTP had emphatically noted a historic concession – I quote – “It is not about giving or not giving Karabakh. It is about keeping Karabakh Armenian. It was inhabited by Armenians for 3000 years and it should be inhabited by Armenians after 3000 years.” 

Historic Karabakh is completely depopulated of its native inhabitants 

****

 

The translation of Levon Ter Petrosyan “War or Peace, Time to get Serious”

Part 1 – The only option for solving the Karabakh question is compromise,'

http://vhapelian.blogspot.com/2024/10/war-or-peace-time-to-get-serious_23.html

Part 2 - The path of adventurers will lead to inevitable defeat

http://vhapelian.blogspot.com/2024/10/war-or-peace-time-to-get-serious_29.html

Part 3 - Five myths and  two riddles

http://vhapelian.blogspot.com/2024/11/war-or-peace-time-to-get-serious.html

Part 4/4 - Our only ally is the refusal of adventure

http://vhapelian.blogspot.com/2024/11/war-or-peace-time-to-get-serious_12.html

1

Norayr Eblighatian: LTP "War or Peace, Time. to Get Serious"

 Introductory Note: President Levon Ter-Petrosyan (LTP) has a position paper for the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, called “War or Peace, Time to Get Serious”. This article is a response to Ter-Petrosyan’s thesis. Norayr Eblighatian

This document is being marketed as a vindication about LTP’s attempt at negotiations with Azerbaijan. The key point is “I told you so, but no-one listened”; and the consequences of the palace coup resulted in a belligerent policy that ended in disaster.

I believe this is a false narrative and a weak attempt at shirking personal responsibility. I should hasten to add that the Karabakh Movement leadership (all members) are responsible for the disaster that followed.

Internal Factors

The movement was started with no exit strategy. The Bishkek Protocol on May 5, 1995 was a provisional ceasefire agreement. In other words, the Armenian side agreed on a ceasefire, even though it was on the winning side, with no final peace agreement.

Following the ceasefire, both sides were expected to prepare for another round(s) of fighting that would end the war decisively. The Azeris immediately started preparations:

·      They consolidated their leadership, and 

·      Started a serious rearmament process. It is public knowledge that on average, the military budget of Azerbaijan was six times that of Armenia during the years between the two Karabakh wars. 

Meanwhile the Karabakh leadership:

·      Took control of the leadership of the republic of Armenia, and

·      Engaged in oligarchic activities; i.e. the fire sale of the industrial base left by the Soviet Union. Without an industrial base, Armenia went back to an agrarian society and a natural resource extraction economy.

We are to believe that in November, 1997, LTP came up with a proposal of land-for-peace negotiations. But negotiations assume two sides that would talk and come up with a mutually agreed upon conclusion.

LTP and the Karabakh Movement leadership did not have anyone to negotiate with. The Azeris had already decided to resolve this issue by force (the same way as they lost the territory by force). The subsequent Minsk negotiations reinforce the idea that the Azeris were pursuing time-to-rearm policy as opposed to a serious bargaining approach.

 

The Palace coup reinforces the conclusion that the Karabakh Movement leadership, as a group, did not have a coherent strategy:

1.   For continuing the fighting to the end, i.e. the jure liberation of Karabakh, and

2.   The unification of Karabakh with Armenia.

It was the unification with Armenia resolution that started the conflict. LTP and his comrades did not pursue that key political objective, even though they were in power both in Armenia and Karabakh.

Why did they start the war, without a clear objective of attaining a peace treaty with Azerbaijan and did not pursue the unification with the republic of Armenia?

The unification with Armenia had two aspects:

·      The jure unification, i.e. a resolution by the Armenian republic parliament declaring Karabakh as an integral part of the territory of the Armenian republic.

·      The facto unification by populating the region of Lachin. Building two roads to Karabakh does not secure the unification; however, populating Lachin and settling more families in Karabakh makes it harder to invade.

The Karabakh Movement leaders also point the finger at the public that was in furor at the thought of concessions. The simple fact is that it is the responsibility of the leadership to shape the expectations of the masses. In other words, they unleashed expectation with their rhetoric that they could not control. Eventually by not pursuing their proclaimed objectives, both the public at large and their second echelon leadership turned against them.

One of the key failures of LTP himself is that he refused to work with the Diaspora, and chose to pursue a solo policy of rule (both in Armenia and in Karabakh). Personal animosities led to a tunnel vision and hindered a broad coalition, which was essential for the monumental task that had started. Without the Diaspora, Armenia simply did not have the means to pursue its strategic objectives. 

My opinion is that the Karabakh leadership belonged to a regional Soviet apparatchik class, with no experience of international politics. These were KGB trained administrators that did not have either the experience or the vision to accomplish the political goals of their movement. They were transformed into petty dictators who were more concerned about keeping their fiefdom than the liberation of Karabakh.

 

And now, they are diffusing the blame, by a he-said-she-said narrative. 

·      One of them pushes the I-told-you-so story. 

·      The other wants us to believe that international relations are an exercise of personal friendships with other powerful leaders. He-is-a-friend-of-mine syndrome.

·      Others blame Russia for interfering in Armenian sovereignty and not letting the Armenian leadership to pursue its own objectives. The adherents of this narrative do not realize that they reveal a lack of sovereignty of ‘Independent’ Armenia.

·      Still others blame the ‘Turkic mindset’, instead of being introspective. The Turks are the bad guys.

The sad phenomenon is that these narratives are repeated so many times that the public starts believing that there must be an element of truth in them. This phenomenon seems to be the real motivation of these false narratives. Spreading doubt and confusion with the hope that history might be tempted to record them as extenuating circumstances.

External Factors

One of the key assumptions of LTPs land-for-peace negotiation strategy is that there is a willing negotiating party. 

My thesis is that assumption is false.

After stopping the bleeding (Bishkek Protocol of May, 1995), Azeris had to assess the situation, and one of the key conclusions was that time was on their side, and this setback can be overcome.

The first step was the consolidation of leadership. Heydar Aliev was installed as the president of Azerbaijan in 1993 after a military coup. He was a high-ranking KGB officer and even though he was despotic, he was ruthlessly efficient. As a side note, one can mention that even as late as October 1999, the Armenian side was divided (the killing of Vazken Sargsyan, Karen Demirchyan and six others in the Armenian Parliament).

The second step was the initiation of oil diplomacy.  In international circles the Karabakh issue was described as two competing claims:

·      Self determination of a region with minority Armenians, vs.

·      Territorial integrity of Azerbaijan.

Aliev started advocating the thesis of territorial integrity and by the second Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020, Azeri diplomacy had prevailed. The majority of international actors were swayed by the territorial integrity argument. We had already lost the case, and were desperately searching for ‘friends’ and saviors. 

The third step was to bolster the Azeri armed forces. As mentioned before, between the first and the second Nagorno-Karabakh war, Azerbaijan spent 6 to 1 on military preparedness compared to Armenia.

In addition to purchasing the latest hardware and getting trained on it, there was a difference in strategy:

·      The Armenians adopted a Maginot line strategy.

·      The Azerbaijanis adopted a test-and-learn agile strategy which included ISTAR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance) coupled with drone and artillery targeting and special operations forces (SOF).

Test-and-Learn operations were conducted:

·      On the border of Karabakh (during the one-to-four-day skirmishes).

·      While Turkey tested and fine-tuned their Bayraktar drones in the Syrian war theatre.

The irony is that Armenians have a large community in Syria that could have easily gathered information on the Bayraktar drones, before they were utilized to target our youth in 2020.

The Armenian General Staff was expecting large columns of tanks and armor, while Azeri special forces outmaneuvered the defensive lines and reached Shushi. 

In conclusion, President Ter-Petrosyan’s attempt at vindicating himself and pointing the finger at his collaborators is not convincing.

Ready for peace, or not ready for peace

I am an advocate for peace in the region Armenia’s crossroad for peace strategy. I wrote “strategy” and not “initiative” because I believe it to be a security strategy for Armenia that diversifies Armenia’s foreign policy that includes closer political ties with the west and aims to make Armenia self-reliant in charting its own strategy. Like any other strategy, it does not all depend on us and it will tax us, much like any other strategy.  Obviously, war is the ultimate tax we pay in blood and lives and it comes about for enforcing a strategy that failed otherwise. Attached are excerpts from friends Vahe H Apelian

Avo G Boghosian: “the important thing is to realize whether we are ready for peace”. (Source: Are we ready for peace? Asbarez Daily, May 3, 2024):

“The people of Armenia, unfortunately squeezed between the two Turkish states, cut off from the sea routes connecting it to the outside world, and for being exposed to all kinds of disasters that have plagued humanity for centuries, naturally could not have a significant demographic growth. On the contrary, they resorted to emigration wherever they could, like many other peoples, which experienced such calamities. Consequently, the demographic picture of Armenia is bleak when comparing with our neighbor Azerbaijan, with whom our last war turned into a disaster. 

Tunisian Arab historian and demographer Ibn Khaltu, who lived in the 19th century, said that depopulation leads to desolation and in decline of civilization. Armenia’s natural growth is negative due to an endless state of war. 

Consequently, the establishment of peace is a priority. Whether we will reach that desirable situation, no one can guess, because it does not depend only on us. However, the important thing is to realize whether we are ready for peace, because the period between peace and the next war is no less difficult than the war itself.”

****

Ara Ghazarian: “good relations witch its neighbors” (posted on my Facebook page in Armenian.

“Dear Vahe.

It's been a long time since I posted my opinions while reading all that is posted on Facebook. I thought by being one less commentator, I am being more useful to Armenia.

But I am about to explode.

We are a people who has no knowledge what politics entails. We express ourselves however we want. We have a newly independent country for 30 years. But I am afraid that we may lose it due to our disagreement.

We are a nation that will live in the past and not in the future. For us the genocide has been a priority. We hate the Azeris by calling them Turks. Recently I was reading the English Economist newspaper, where an Azeri reporter wrote that “We Azeris had nothing to do with the genocide of 1915, but the Armenians made us into Turks as having participated in the crimes committed by the Turks.”

During the early days of independence, in the beginning of 1990, Levon Ter Petrosyan (LTP) said that governments do not  lead a country by sentiments. Diaspora immediately accused him of negligence.  He was right. We could have a good relationship with Turkey and still push forward the issue of the big crime (Meds Yeghern).

During a conference, LTP said that “every year we delay the Artsakh issue, we make it more difficult for the international community”. He was right again.

The painful Ottoman pogroms made us terrified of the Turks. Fearing that the Turks would attack us, we us relied on the Russians to protect us in case the Turks attacked us.  What a big mistake that was for us, as if the Turks were going gobble us.

And finally, let me say this - if a country wants to prosper, it must have good relations witch its neighbors. Long wars weaken a country, causing poverty and emigration of the people.”

***

Jack Chelebian M.D.: “LOOKING BACK, I WAS WRONG” (posted on my Facebook page.”

“I will start at home. My late father was pro LTP’s position on seeking peace. He based that on his opinion that it wasn’t just Armenian valor and superiority that led to Armenia prevailing in the early 90’s, but that after swinging back and forth Russia had tipped the scale in favor of Armenia; however, Russia has its own interests, and things could be different in the future. I was more of an observer rather than one with strong opinions about the matter. Then, after Robert Kocharian + forced the resignation of LTP, I was swept up by the optimistic tide supportive of the young, militaristic hard-line regime of Kocharian. it also helped that at that point Russia was still arming Armenia - later it went on to supply as much, or I should say more arms to Azerbaijan).

LOOKING BACK, I WAS WRONG about Armenia’s first post-Soviet President of Armenia Levon Ter Petrosian.

You heard it here first, folks. First to admit being wrong about LTP.”

The audacity of Vartan

Vaհe H Apelian

It’s February and it’s the month in which the name Vartan dominates Armenian calendar. It’s the month that we celebrate Vartanank, The Feast of Vartanantz, also known as the Feast of St. Vartan the Captain and Companions. It is in celebration of the 451 A.D. Battle of Avarayr, led by Vartan Mamigonian. 

But it is not about Vartan Mamigonian I am going to muse in this blog, in this month of February. But it's about the former foreign minister of Armenia, Vartan Oskanian, who seems to have taken his one-time vocation in foreign ministry and brought it to the  Diaspora. But, his mission is not for forging an alliance between Diaspora and Armenia, or soliciting Diaspora supporting the government the citizens of Armenia have chosen. His present-day ministerial mission is to incite Diaspora against it. I have to correct myself and note that it is to incite the Armenians in the West to stand against the present government the citizens of Armenia voted for thrice, the first time by a snap parliamentary election on May 8, 2018, and twice by general elections; one held  in December 2018, and the other in June 2021. His message, in his impeccable English, is not addressed  to the Russian Armenians, because he wants the Armenians in the Western hemisphere and in Armenia, present Armenia on a platter onto the fold of the Russian Federation, damning Nikol Pashinyan policy of diversification and the pursuit of the crossroad for peace initiative.

Vartan Oskanian, should know that not all Armenians think the way he does. Yes, Armenians living in the United States are painfully aware of the ever-evolving geopolitics. They also know that no other super power in its day, has been as restrained as America was after Word War II. They also know that no other nation, no other people, has helped Armenians in their times of need, as America and Americans did.  And this blogger will not forget what Simon Vratsian said, “Whatever happens; however we regard America’s role in the Armenian Question, we do not forget nor should we forget the U.S. humanitarian assistance to Armenia and the provisions they provided.” (Link 1)

What is the message Vartan Oskanian brings to the Armenians in the west?

In fact, it is a very simple message. It goes like this.

See folks, he says, your United States government is so unreliable that you should heed to its ugly American reality, and you should have the citizens of Armenia also heed to the ugly American "reality". Much like Ukraine that faces dwindling American support, Armenia will soon face the same unsettling scenario, in spite of the cordial relations that have come about between Armenia and the United State of America. 

In simple terms, Vartan Oskanian’s mission is for Western Armenians renounce Armenian American relations, and help Armenia  do the same, right onto the Russian Federation fold. Forget about the Russia reneging its November 9, 2020 agreement and seeing that Azerbaijan depopulated the native Armenians to the latest soul, and had eight of its leaders abduct and have them languish in the Baku prisons. That, he implies, came about because of the fault of the present Armenian leaders. Don’t you see, what happened to the last president of Republic of Artsakh, who signed the capitulation of the Republic he presided? Vartan Osaknian implies. Samvel Shahramadian was flown on Russian helicopter to Armenia and lives there a comfortable life. So will Armenia and Armenians and so will of course Vartan Oskanian, Robert Kocharian and their cronies.

Coming to Vartan Oskanian

Vartan Oskanian is a repatriate who joined the Armenian foreign ministry under president Levon Ter Petrosyan, and in a relatively short period of time worked his way up the diplomatic hierarchy. He likely knew LTP’s policy about settling the Karabagh issue by major concessions LTP asserted in his November 1, 1997 position paper titling it “War or peace, time to get serious.” Where LTP noted:

“The only option for solving the Karabakh question is compromise, which does not mean victory for one side and defeat for the other but by possible agreement reached through conflict resolution. Let them not try to mislead the people by saying that there is an alternative to compromise. The alternative to compromise is war.

Rejection of compromise and maximalism (striving to achieve the maximum and not the possible) is the shortest way to the complete destruction of Karabakh and deterioration of the situation in Armenia.

It is not about giving or not giving Karabakh. It is about keeping Karabakh Armenian. It was inhabited by Armenians for 3000 years and it should be inhabited by Armenians after 3000 years." (Link 2)

But a few months after publishing his policy position for settling of the Karabagh issue, LTP was forced to resign. The palace coup was led by a quartet that included Robert Kocharian, Sezh Sargsyan, Vazken Sargsyan and Vartan Oskanian.

The consequences of the shift of the policy is the chapter before last of the torturous and tragic Armenian history, whose last chapter is the present day Republic of Armenia.

Much will be written about the period between the February 1998 forced resignation of LTP and September, 2023 capitulation of Republic of Artsakh. But one thing is regrettably certain for me. Years will turn into decades, into quindecinnium (quarter century), and semi-century and on. Not much will remain from the once proud native Armenian inhabitants of historic Artsakh, the land of the legendary Meliks. 

But the red poppies will continue to blossom on the hills of mountainous Nagorno-Karabagh, as Artsakh recedes onto history and Vartan Oskanian too, unlike Vartan Mamigonian, will never be able to redeem himself.   

                                                ***

Links:

1. REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA’S ECONOMIC STATUS IN THE BEGINNING OF 1919 and THE U.S. HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE

 https://vhapelian.blogspot.com/2019/02/republic-of-armenias-economic-status-in.html

2.  The most consequential palace coup in recent Armenia.histor

   https://vhapelian.blogspot.com/2025/02/vartan-oskanian-is-complicit-in-most.html

The audacity of Vartan

Vahe H Apelian

A field of red poppies on a hillside in Nagorno-Karabakh, June 3, 2019

It’s February and it’s the month in which the name Vartan dominates Armenian calendar. It’s the month that we celebrate Vartanank, The Feast of Vartanantz, also known as the Feast of St. Vartan the Captain and Companions. It is in celebration of the 451 A.D. Battle of Avarayr, led by Vartan Mamigonian. 

But it is not about Vartan Mamigonian I am going to muse in this blog, in this month of February. But it's about the former foreign minister of Armenia, Vartan Oskanian, who seems to have taken his one-time vocation in foreign ministry and brought it to the  Diaspora. But, his mission is not for forging an alliance between Diaspora and Armenia, or soliciting Diaspora supporting the government the citizens of Armenia have chosen. His present-day ministerial mission is to incite Diaspora against it. I have to correct myself and note that it is to incite the Armenians in the West to stand against the present government the citizens of Armenia voted for thrice, the first time by a snap parliamentary election on May 8, 2018, and twice by general elections; one held  in December 2018, and the other in June 2021. His message, in his impeccable English, is not addressed  to the Russian Armenians, because he wants the Armenians in the Western hemisphere and in Armenia, present Armenia on a platter onto the fold of the Russian Federation, damning Nikol Pashinyan policy of diversification and the pursuit of the crossroad for peace initiative.

Vartan Oskanian, should know that not all Armenians think the way he does. Yes, Armenians living in the United States are painfully aware of the ever-evolving geopolitics. They also know that no other super power in its day, has been as restrained as America was after Word War II. They also know that no other nation, no other people, has helped Armenians in their times of need, as America and Americans did.  And this blogger will not forget what Simon Vratsian said, “Whatever happens; however we regard America’s role in the Armenian Question, we do not forget nor should we forget the U.S. humanitarian assistance to Armenia and the provisions they provided.” (Link 1)

What is the message Vartan Oskanian brings to the Armenians in the west?

In fact, it is a very simple message. It goes like this.

See folks, he says, your United States government is so unreliable that you should heed to its ugly American reality, and you should have the citizens of Armenia also heed to the ugly American "reality". Much like Ukraine that faces dwindling American support, Armenia will soon face the same unsettling scenario, in spite of the cordial relations that have come about between Armenia and the United State of America. 

In simple terms, Vartan Oskanian’s mission is for Western Armenians renounce Armenian American relations, and help Armenia  do the same, right onto the Russian Federation fold. Forget about the Russia reneging its November 9, 2020 agreement and seeing that Azerbaijan depopulated the native Armenians to the latest soul, and had eight of its leaders abduct and have them languish in the Baku prisons. That, he implies, came about because of the fault of the present Armenian leaders. Don’t you see, what happened to the last president of Republic of Artsakh, who signed the capitulation of the Republic he presided? Vartan Osaknian implies. Samvel Shahramadian was flown on Russian helicopter to Armenia and lives there a comfortable life. So will Armenia and Armenians and so will of course Vartan Oskanian, Robert Kocharian and their cronies.

Coming to Vartan Oskanian

Vartan Oskanian is a repatriate who joined the Armenian foreign ministry under president Levon Ter Petrosyan, and in a relatively short period of time worked his way up the diplomatic hierarchy. He likely knew LTP’s policy about settling the Karabagh issue by major concessions LTP asserted in his November 1, 1997 position paper titling it “War or peace, time to get serious.” Where LTP noted:

“The only option for solving the Karabakh question is compromise, which does not mean victory for one side and defeat for the other but by possible agreement reached through conflict resolution. Let them not try to mislead the people by saying that there is an alternative to compromise. The alternative to compromise is war.

Rejection of compromise and maximalism (striving to achieve the maximum and not the possible) is the shortest way to the complete destruction of Karabakh and deterioration of the situation in Armenia.

It is not about giving or not giving Karabakh. It is about keeping Karabakh Armenian. It was inhabited by Armenians for 3000 years and it should be inhabited by Armenians after 3000 years." (Link 2)

But a few months after publishing his policy position for settling of the Karabagh issue, LTP was forced to resign. The palace coup was led by a quartet that included Robert Kocharian, Sezh Sargsyan, Vazken Sargsyan and Vartan Oskanian.

The consequences of the shift of the policy is the chapter before last of the torturous and tragic Armenian history, whose last chapter is the present day Republic of Armenia.

Much will be written about the period between the February 1998 forced resignation of LTP and September, 2023 capitulation of Republic of Artsakh. But one thing is regrettably certain for me. Years will turn into decades, into quindecinnium (quarter century), and semi-century and on. Not much will remain from the once proud native Armenian inhabitants of historic Artsakh, the land of the legendary Meliks. 

But the red poppies will continue to blossom on the hills of mountainous Nagorno-Karabagh, as Artsakh recedes onto history and Vartan Oskanian too, unlike Vartan Mamigonian, will never be able to redeem himself.   

                                                ***

Links:

1. REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA’S ECONOMIC STATUS IN THE BEGINNING OF 1919 and THE U.S. HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE

 https://vhapelian.blogspot.com/2019/02/republic-of-armenias-economic-status-in.html

2.  The most consequential palace coup in recent Armenia.histor

   https://vhapelian.blogspot.com/2025/02/vartan-oskanian-is-complicit-in-most.html