Qualifying for a seat in National Assembly

Vaհe H Apelian

 

National Assembly of Armenia make-up

The present National Assembly of Armenia consist of 107 seats. 69 seats, of the National Assembly seats make the government, and 38 seats of the National Assembly constitute6 the opposition. Could the National Assembly have a a broader representation by lowering the required threshold to have seats in the National Assembly?

During the June 20, 2021 snap parliamentary election, the criteria for having seats in the National Assembly was 5% of the total votes cast for a single political party, and 7% of the votes for a coalition party. Furthermore, the National Assembly is set to have at least 3 political entities as parties or coalitions, and the opposition should constitute at least 1/3 of the National Assembly. These requirements appear not to have changed for the June 2026 election.

But, during the June 20, 2021 snap general election, Serzh Sargsyan’s I Have Honor coalition amassed only 5.22% of the votes, which would not have qualified the coalition for any seat. However, it was the highest percentage among the rest of the competing political entities that did not qualify. Since the regulation called for at least 3 political entities in the National Assembly, I Have Honor party qualified for 7 candidates. 

We should bear in mind that the number of the deputies in the National Assembly of Armenia varies. That is why the December 2018 snap parliamentary election, resulted in a 132 seats National Assembly, while the June 12, 2021 snap parliamentary resulted in 107 seats National Assembly.

It should be noted that National Assembly of Armenia includes the base 101 members plus up to four minority representatives.  The two extra seats were added to ensure opposition representation occupies 1/3 of the seats of the National Assembly, as stipulated by law.

Let us also bear in mind that during the June 20, 2021 parliamentary election, Nikol Pashinyan led Civil Contract party had 53.95% of the votes. Robert Kocharyan led Armenia Alliance had 21.11% of the votes.  Serzh Sargsyan led I Have Honor coalition had 5.22%. Summing up these figures comes to 80.28%. What happened to the remaining 19.72% of the votes.? These votes were not cast in favor of Civil Contract, or I Have Honor, nor in favor of Armenia Alliance coalition. They were cast to other political entities, and there were many of them, but none of them met the threshold requirement. But these votes were not lost but were absorbed by the three parties in the National Assembly, disfranchising these voters who did not vote for them.  The votes cast for the parties that did not qualify for a seat in National Assembly were absorbed by  Civil Cotract that had 54% of the votes, it ended up with 67% - 2/3 - of the National Assembly seats; the opposition that had 25% of the votes at the election, ended up with 33% or  - 1/3 - of the National Assembly seats.

Lowering the threshold for a political entity, say  to 1%, will give opportunity for more parties to be in the National Assembly, but it will greatly complicate the formation of a coalition government and a form coherent opposition. 

Wikipedia notes that to qualify for seats in Israel's Knesset, a political entity must receive at least 3.25% of the total national vote. It is a threshold that has been raised in 2014 from the previous 2%, to encourage greater political stability by reducing small parties, though it has faced criticism for potentially marginalizing minority groups. Parties that cross this threshold – 3.25% - earn seats in proportion to their vote share.

Now let us assume that Armenia adopted a law that permits a party or a coalition should have a lower threshold, at least 3.0 % of the votes, to qualify for seats in the National Assembly. How many parties would have been in the National Assembly?

During the June 20, 2021 snap general election 1,281,375 votes were cast. 3.00 %, or 38, 441 votes would have qualified the competing party/coalition for seats in the National Assembly. Consequently, in the addition to the three parties, the following would have seats in the National Assembly.

Prosperous Armenia, which had 50,444 votes, having recieved 3.95% of the votes.

And

Hanrapetutyun Party, which had 38,768 votes, having received 3.02% of the votes.

What would have changed in the National Assembly?

Instead of the current opposition, consisting of I Have Honor and Armenia Alliance,there would have been two more opposition parties, Gagik Tsarukyan led Prosperous Armenia, and Aram Sargsyan led Hanrapetutyun Party. The Civil Contract would have continued to lead the legislative National Assembly, much like it does at the present.

Consequently, lowering the threshold for assuring seats in the National Assembly is not the answer, as long as one political entity carries 50 plus of the votes.  

The answer for diversifying the National Assembly of Armenia may come about by diversifying the votes cast  be to a reduced the number of political entities  vying for power, instead of over the 20 that took part in the June 20, 2021 election.