Vaհe H Apelian
I follow PM Nikol Pashinyan’s postings on his Facebook page. I found out that he is on vacation until August 15, 2025. The first Armenian couple and family seem to have secluded themselves vacationing and do not seem to post on social media. His wife Anna Hakobyan has posted a number of family pictures mostly depicting their lives before they became public figures, she said.
But I was left under the impression that Nikol Pashinyan has been a civic minded since his youth, surely not on the international scene as he became one after the revolution he led that propelled him to power on May 8, 2018, when he was elected effectively as the first PM of the parliamentary form of government Armenia had adopted in a national constitutional referendum in 2015.
I first became aware of Nikol Pashinyan thanks to the Keghart.com online journal. On November 27, 2010 it published a circular in defense of an imprisoned journalist in Armenia by the name Nikol Pashinyan. The circular read: “We, Armenians living in the Diaspora and our non-Armenian friends, are deeply concerned in the imprisonment of Nikol Pashinyan, editor-in-chief of Haykakan Zhamanak (“Armenian Time”) daily in Armenia, and his treatment in jail. While Mr. Pashinyan’s voluntary surrender to law enforcement agencies should have been duly noted by the Armenian authorities, the veteran journalist has experienced coercion behind bars. We attest that these reprehensible acts of the authorities–aimed at silencing Mr. Pashinyan and punishing him for his political views–will have the opposite outcome, making the editor’s voice heard more forcefully in Armenia and in the Diaspora. Deeply concerned with the treatment of the journalist, we are following the “judicial process” with vigilance, hoping that he will be released soon. Meanwhile, we demand that the Armenian authorities put an end to the unlawful acts against him and ensure his security.”
Looking back at the circular, I read that 130,370 people had read the circular, over 2000 had commented. An unaccounted number of people had signed the circular. As far as I know, Keghart.com was the only Armenian Diaspora journal that carried the news of his imprisonment and treatment in prison. The remaining Diaspora journals had remained indifferent. But eight years after that appeal, Nikol Pashinyan was elected the first functioning PM of Armenia on May 8, 2018. The peaceful Velvet Revolution he led had catapulted him to that position he presently continues to occupy after winning two general snap elections. The first general snap election took place on December 2018 to validate the parliamentary choice on May 8, 2018. The second general election took place in June 2021, some eight months after cessation of the second Artsakh war. In spite of the inordinate historical events Armenia experienced under his watch, the citizens of Armenia reelected him in both general snap elections.
On May 1, 2018, Nikol Pashinyan presented himself to the National Assembly, as the candidate to take over the seat the newly elected PM Serzh Sargsyan had vacated when he resigned office a week earlier on April 23, 2018. He addressed the NA and outlined his vision. With regard to the foreign policy, he said the following: “If I become Prime Minister, there will be no sharp changes in Armenia's foreign policy. Armenia will continue to remain a member of the EAEU (Eurasian Economic Union), and the CSTO. We considered and consider Russia a military ally and this movement does not pose any threat to Russia. We will deepen relations with the European Union; we will do everything to eliminate the EU visa requirement for Armenian citizens." (see the recorded quote below). However, Armenia appears to detach itself from Russian Federation in security matters, as it has frozen its CSTCO membership and appears to be contemplating withdrawal from the Russian led security organization. Why the shift in policy came about is altogether different matter.
Hybrid warfare is a 21st century warfare that has been formally accepted as a warring strategy.
Upon his return from vacation, Nikol Pashinyan will resume what he already maintained that Armenia is in a state of hybrid war waged by internal and external forces, amidst Armenia’s security concerns. Surprisingly and unexpectadly segments of Diaspora in the west appear to be part of that Russia led shadowy warfare against the Nikol Pashinyan/Civil Contract led government. The ongoing shadowy war aims to rupture the Armenian civil society by misinformation by creating cultural war fronts, pitting an alleged more patriotic segment against an alleged not as patriotic; or an alleged nationalistic segment of the Armenian society against an alleged not as nationalistic; against the government alleging that it corrupts the Armenian society by its closer ties to decadent West. The recent virulent comments against Jennifer Lopez musical festival sponsored by the government was also done in that context. Alleging that the Armenian government is waging a war against the church when it is not, is a misinformation that is being promoted to oust the sitting government.
Recently I watched a presentation sponsored by ARPA, titled, “The Transformative Transition, Western Alignment, Geopolitical and Internal Ongoings in Armenia”, presented by Prof. Nerses Kopalyan and moderated by Dr. Hrair Cabayan. Prof. Nerses claimed that Russia has entrusted waging its hybrid war against the Nikol Pashinyan led government to its experienced A Team. Russia still has a lot of leverage in Armenia led by Russian Armenian oligarchs and their proxies in Armenia, with Catholicos Karekin II, his brother, and a few high placed bishops playing a decisive role.
Naturally the citizens of Armenia will decide the course of their country. It would be expected that it would come about in the ballot box. However, recently National Security Services recorded Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan and others associated with the "Sacred Struggle" movement, discussing acts of subversion to seize power is very concerning and hopefully would not spill in June 2026 election.
Prof. Nerses said that the anti government faction in Armenia does not have a viable candidate for the June 2026 election. The opposition or should I say anti-government faction may disrupt the June 2026 election by fostering doubts on its legitimacy. He claimed that the opposition goal is beyond the June 2026 election. It is the June 2031 election. Those interested may hear the panelist prof. Neses Kopalyan and the moderator Dr. Hrair Cabayan in the video recording attached below.
Բնագիրը՝
«Իմ վարչապետ լինելու դեպքում Հայաստանի արտաքին քաղաքականութեան մեջ կտրուկ շր՚ջադարձեր չեն լինի։ Հայաստանի շարունակելու է մնալ ԵԱՏՄ եւ ՀԱՊԿ անդամ։ Մենք Ռուսաստանին համարել եւ համարում ենք ռազմավառական դաշնակից եւ այս շարժումը որեւէ վտանք չի ներկայացնում Ռուսաստանի համար։ Մերնք խորացնելու ենք հարաբերութիւնները Եվրամիության հետ, ամէն ինչ անելու ենք Հայաստանի քաղաքացիներուն համար Եվրամիության մուտքի արտոնագրի պահանջի վերացման ուղղությամբ։»
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