Vaհe H Apelian
Today, on Saturday July 19, 2025, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev speaking to the participants of the Third Shusha Global Media Forum in the city of Khankendi (the Turkified name of Stepanakert), said “We created a new reality in 44 days in 2020, and they were forced to accept it.”
The “they”, Aliyev alluded, is the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) Minsk Group. He said that the group, founded in 1992 and was co-chaired by France, Russia, and the US, with the stated aim of facilitating the resolution of the Karabakh conflict. But Aliyev alleged, the group was instead telling Azerbaijan to accept the situation, but that Baku rejected them, said Aliyev. The new reality Azerbaijan created, boasted Aliyev, was the complete depopulation of Nagorno-Karabakh of its native Armenian inhabitants. There are no Armenians as an entity in Azerbaijan to have an issue to resolve. Why the (OSCE) Minsk Group? Sounds familiar, does it not?
I was reminded of Antranig Chalabian, who on Armenia and Russia relationship wrote in 1988 (see note): “As long as Turks are Turks and they are living in Turkey, Armenians inhabiting the southern boarders of the Soviet Union have no choice but to seek Russian protection, irrespective of the kind of government which rules that country. This is a political affinity and has nothing to do with ideologies.”
But he also qualified that relationship and wrote that a strong and a greater Armenia is Russia’s best security asset in the South Caucasus. Russia, Antranig elaborated further, is vulnerable at its southern border and Armenia is Russia’s natural and most reliable ally and the best guarantor of its southern border. But he also cautioned reflecting on history and said that: “The Byzantine emperors made mistakes and they paid dearly for them. Russia’s tsars, in their turn, were incapable of seeing their southern borders were inhabited not by White Russians but by potentially dangerous Turkish peoples. In the face of that danger, instead of creating a great and autonomous Armenian state to divide and weaken those peoples, they aspired for an Armenia without Armenians, thus strengthening and uniting their own enemies! It is not unconceivable that world leaders often lack foresight and political farsightedness, as well as the ability to comprehend the facts or anticipate the future."
Since Armenia regained its independence, it became apparent that Russia, did not see “the important role a greater and a stronger Armenia can play” as a buffer for Mother Russia in its southern border. On the contrary Russia tilted away from its natural ally Armenia cozying with toward Azerbaijan. But that rapprochement, at the cost of depopulation of Artsakh of its native inhabitant is now strained almost to the breaking point.
Antranig Chalabian asked in 1988, wondering: “Will the present-day Soviet rulers of glasnost and perestroika (openness and restructuring) be able to see the important role a greater and stronger Armenia can play in the political network of religious minded peoples on the southern borders of their empire?"
"It remains to be seen,” Antranig Chalabian wrote. (Read The Commissars in the attached link below.)
The new rulers of glasnost and perestroika (openness and restructuring), apparently were blinded by their lingering imperial ambitions of the past. They did not see the importance of a greater and stronger Armenia in the South Caucasus. Instead of empowering Armenia, Russia armed Azerbaijan and sided with it. But, an emboldened Azerbaijan, having achieved its goals of absorbing the Soviet Nagorno-Karabakh Oblast, and in cahoots with Israel and the West, in support of Ukraine and against Iran, is challenging Russia as manifested through public criticism of Russia, cancellation of cultural events and high-level visits, and arresting of Russian nationals in Baku. “South Caucasus is slipping from Russia’s grasp” wrote Al Jazeera. Russia's “Unipolar Moment” in the South Caucasus is ending, wrote another report.
Russia’s or maybe Putin’s blinded ambitions resulted in a spectacular policy failure in South Caucasus, but also resulted in the loss of the historical Armenian Artsakh.
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Note; Those interested may read Antranig Chalabianbs "Emperors, Tsars and Commissars" booklet : http://vhapelian.blogspot.com/2023/08/antranig-chalabian-emperors-tsars-and.html
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