The mandate is in the number of voters

VaՀe H Apelian 

Voting in Armenia closed at 8 pm, on Sunday June 7, 2026. Early hour of the next day, at around 1.30 am June 8, 2026, Nikol Pashinyan held a conference and conveyed that that he was informed that the election results indicated that the Civil Contract party was winning the election. He claimed that not only that the Civil Contract party was winning the election but that it was winning it with more of a mandate than in the previous election. He attributed the mandate to the Velvet Revolution remaining steadfast in its mission.

Basing my projection on his announcement, I estimated and published by projected outcome of the election and posted it on my Facebook page with the following numbers as my projection: Civil Contract getting 59.5% of the votes, given that in the 2021 election, the Civil Contract had 53.95% of the votes. I also had estimated that the Strong Armenia party may get 20.5% of the votes, Armenia Alliance and Prosperous Armenia party may each get 10% of the votes. Obviously, my projection was wrong and the Civil Contract party ended up getting 49.85% of the votes.

Consequently, the argument may be put forth that the Civil Contract has lost or is losing its mandate. During the December 2018 snap general election, Nikol Pashinyan had 70.44% of the votes. During the June 2021 snap general election, Nikol Pashinyan had 53.95% of the votes.  In 2026 election, Nikol Pashinyan has his Civil Contract party 49,85% of the votes. Where is the mandate then, a person may ask?

The mandate is in the number of votes cast for Nikol Pashinyan led party. It was My Step party in 2018 election; it was Civil Contract party in the 2021 election. It also is Nikol Pashinyan led Civil Contract party in the 2026 election.

The number of votes cast, the total number of registered voters, percent of the voters who voted, and the percent of votes cast in favor of Nikol Pashinyan are listed in the table below. The figures are from Wikipedia.

The table indicates that the total number of registered voters has not changed during the last eight – 8 – years. In 2016, the number of registered voters was 2,593,143 voters. In 2026, the number of the registered voters was 2,507,216. In fact, there were 85,927 less voters in 2026, than in 2018, the year the Velvet Revolution came about.

The number of voters who cast in favor of Nikol Pashinyan in 2018 was 1,269,847. In 2026, the number of voters who cast in favor of Nikol Pashinyan was 1,476,552, which means that 215,705 more voters cast their votes in favor of Nikol Pashinyan in 2026, than they did in 2018, the year the Velvet Revolution came about.

Folks, the numbers attest and are a solid testament that the people of Armenia trust Nikol Pashinyan, and support Nikol Pashinyan led grass root phenomenon, which in my view is unheard of and unseen in recent Armenian history.

Revolutions are transient. They tend to lose their momentum soon after. All revolutions I have come to know in history eventually fizzled out or morphed into something far different.  Lenin led revolution, Castro led revolution, Mao Zedong led revolutions are far cry at the present from what they were. Most revolutions I have known suppressd the existing law and order and instituted their own. The Velvet Revolution is the only revolution I know of that held the existing law and order and attempts to bring about change in the existing law and order the Velvet Revolution took over. 

These numbers do not lie. Eight years after its Velvet Revolution took its historic first step, the people of Armenia has kept its momentum against incredible odds stacked against the movement.

The mandate is in the number of voters who have not only remained steadfast but have increased in number since the Velvet Revolution  led by Nikol Pashinyan took its, and his first step on March 31, 2018 from Gyumri, and came to power on May 8, 2018.